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Translated from the Headlines （Toutiao 头条新闻）
Author: Poplar Observation Room（白杨观察室）
In recent days, the civil war that broke out in Ethiopia, an East African country, has entered its mid-to-late stage. From a military standpoint alone, the overall situation of the Ethiopian civil war tends to be one-sided, but this one-sidedness does not mean that the Ethiopian government forces are as powerful as they are in a sweeping sweep, but that the Ethiopian government forces have been beaten by local armed forces of various factions. Looking for teeth on the ground, throwing away helmets, and abandoning armor, compared with the early and middle stages of the civil war, the overall situation has undergone a fundamental reversal. Compared with the war on the front line, there are still some special details on the Ethiopian civil war that deserve attention. For example, whether it is government forces or local armed forces, they have basically achieved a large amount of assistance in the process of fighting. Chinese companies have never committed a crime, which seems to have become an invisible tacit agreement that both sides of the war must abide by. And as far as the current situation is concerned, there is still a very great possibility in the near future, that is, the future development of Ethiopia’s national development may continue to follow the “Chinese route.”
The defeated Ethiopian government forces
First of all, let’s talk about the current situation of the Ethiopian civil war. According to the summary of the latest news, the current situation of the Ethiopian government forces is quite bad. Earlier this year, I suffered three major defeats in June and was chased by its main opponent, Tigray, by armed forces. Several elite field divisions were collectively defeated and defeated. The Tigray Armed Forces initially announced that they had captured at least 7,000 government soldiers. In the subsequent great victories, they have successively captured many government prisoners. The total number must be at least tens of thousands of people. It’s just a prisoner, and the enemy troops wiped out on the battlefield are not counted. It may sound exaggerated, but the live photos sent back by many well-known media such as Reuters are really exaggerated. The mighty army of government prisoners crowded the streets and could not be seen at a glance. Such a large scale of capture is counted as the battle. With casualties and various attritions, it is not an exaggeration to say that the government army has been defeated like a mountain.
A team of prisoners who can’t see their heads at a glance
As one of the underdeveloped countries in the Third World, Ethiopia, like many African countries that have been invaded by the West for a long time, has established diplomatic and cooperative relations with China in various fields very early. In recent years, China’s assistance projects to Ethiopia are not insignificant, covering many fields such as communications, transportation, and infrastructure construction. In Ethiopia, they are basically blooming and developing in an all-around way. It stands to reason that in Ethiopia, which has been a year since the outbreak of the full-scale civil war, the Chinese-aided projects should have been suspended due to the war. But the actual situation is that the two sides of the war seem to have an invisible tacit understanding, whether it is the government army or the local armed forces, almost nothing has been done to the Chinese aided enterprises.
China has a lot of cooperation with Ethiopia
For example, the Asia-Djibouti Railway aided by China has so far been unimpeded, and the Chinese-aided “Oriental Industrial Park” enterprise cluster in Addis Ababa has still maintained a relatively low level of normal operation. These phenomena are enough to explain an objective reality: Although the forces of the warring parties in the Ethiopian civil war are complicated, their attitudes towards China are almost always recognized and respected. This can be seen from practical actions alone. This is certainly related to the traditional and profound friendship between China and Ethiopia, but at the same time, it also needs to take into account the image of a peaceful and responsible great country that China has long shaped, established, and maintained in the international arena, and that China is today The international influence of the real world powers, the influence of power and other factors are comprehensively considered.
When the epidemic came, China was also the first big country to help Ethiopia
In short, it is not accidental that the factions of the Ethiopian Civil War did not commit a crime against Chinese companies, and some other things can be analyzed and derived from it. As the biggest “victor” in this civil war so far, Tigray, who has beaten government forces all the way and won more and loses less, maintains a very friendly attitude towards China. One thing that needs to be pointed out is that the existence of Tigray’s armed forces is quite special. It can be regarded as a special existence that was driven back to Tigray State after the death of former Prime Minister Meles and the huge political changes in Ethiopia. Previously, the Tigray political forces, which formed and led the Tigray local armed forces, were part of the Ethiopian government. Most of its military and political leaders were senior officials of the former Ethiopian government. For example, the current leader of Tigray State: Debrezi Weng is very friendly to China and has repeatedly expressed his desire to have a good relationship with China in public.
Debretsion Gebremichael has been friendly to China for a long time
Debrezion had maintained a very friendly attitude towards China when he served as deputy prime minister and minister of communications in the Ethiopian national government. He successively invited ZTE, Huawei, and other Chinese technology companies to enter Ethiopia for cooperation in the name of the country. Technology has built a large number of optical fiber networks, 4G infrastructure, etc. Even after being pushed back to Tigray due to political squeeze, Debrezion still emphasized that “Tizhou still welcomes Chinese friends and opens the door for Chinese companies to invest and develop.” Therefore, even before the government forces invaded Tizhou, the normal operation of Chinese companies in Tigray State was still well guaranteed in the days when the final battle was about to come. With the massive counterattack of Tigray’s armed forces, the government forces were driven out in one breath to a great victory, and the front was moved a lot forward. Some Chinese companies that had been harassed by the war also returned to tranquility.
The Tigray armed forces seized a large number of advanced weapons of the government, including the A-200 long-range rocket launcher made in China
Considering that the current international environment is still under the influence of the new crown epidemic, the economies of Western countries, including the United States, are basically in a state of weakness and weakness, even if they can recover from the epidemic and its collateral effects in the next few years It will take a long time to get out and complete its own recovery. It is impossible to expand overseas markets on a large scale, or even enter a country that has just ended the civil war. However, the Chinese economy under the epidemic situation is, on the contrary, it is still in a state of rapid development. The fluctuations have laid the foundation for Chinese companies to further expand their overseas markets. Ethiopia, whose infrastructure is in urgent need of assistance, also happens to correspond to the field that China is best at. After all, the nickname of “infrastructure madman” is not to boast.
China-aided dam project in Ethiopia
The situation mentioned above can also be seen by the entire world, including various factions in Ethiopia. Therefore, no matter who the ultimate winner of the Ethiopian civil war will be, the introduction of the Chinese economy is believed to be impossible. This is an indispensable part. This can be seen from the fact that Chinese companies are investing in Egypt and are still getting good protection despite the constant war. In other words, for Ethiopia itself, this is the best manifestation of the future development of the country will still follow the “Chinese route.”
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Translated from the Headlines （Toutiao 头条新闻）
Author: Silent Night History（静夜史）
At 10:20 pm on May 21, 1991, the then Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was killed by a bomb by a flower-presenting woman while helping the Indian Unity Communist Party campaign in Tamil Nadu.
The assassination of Rajiv Gandhi was seen by the Indians as an irreversible and huge loss to the Indian nation and nation, so they subsequently held a grand state funeral for Rajiv Gandhi, who was then UN Secretary-General Perez de Querrey. Yar also expressed deep sorrow for the young death of this “outstanding leader” in India.
But everyone on earth knows that the death of Rajiv Gandhi was a direct result of self-inflicted blame. As a country facing Sri Lanka across the sea, although India has been in a mess for decades, and the country is full of contradictions, India has always had no scruples about interfering in the internal affairs of neighboring countries.
After all, long before India’s independence in 1947, the founding prime minister Nehru described the “Indian dream” of “either being impressive or disappearing, and the middle route would not satisfy me.” Since then, India has not only worked hard to restore the territory of British India, but also Give full play to the subjective initiative and make persistent efforts in an attempt to build a “Greater Indian Federation” that encompasses the South Asian subcontinent, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Sri Lanka is naturally doomed.
Compared with other neighboring countries in India, Sri Lanka is not only a veritable island country but also very different in its “source of civilization.”
To put it simply, although as a South Asian country, Sri Lanka has “failed to avoid vulgarity” in the wave of powers dividing the world in modern times, and in particular, it has not escaped the clutches of British colonists. Although under the same cover of the Mi-shaped flag, Sri Lanka was once the “private property” of the British royal family, and the United Kingdom and surrounding land countries were more or less ravaged by the British East India Company and British India.
In the 15th century, due to the Ottoman Empire’s blockade of the Silk Road on land, Western European countries had to go to the sea one after another, thus opening the era of vigorous navigation. The Iberian Peninsula, due to its geographical location adjacent to the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean, the need for capitalist economic development, the strong support of its rulers, and the inheritance of a series of advantages such as the navigation technology of the Arab Empire, finally walked in the forefront of the great voyage.
According to the ruling of the “Papacy Meridian”, Spain colonized the Western Hemisphere, and Portugal continued to march towards the east. In 1521, Portugal was the first colonist to “visit” Sri Lanka.
But with the rise of empires such as the Netherlands and Britain and France, Portugal was soon forced to prosper and decline. In 1656, the Netherlands arrived and occupied Ceylon on the island.
However, the Netherlands, as a business empire, was also short-lived, and Britain and France became the colonial powers that had the last laugh. However, the Seven Years’ War that ended in 1763 and the American War of Independence in 1783 greatly increased the burden on France and eventually led to the outbreak of the French Revolution in 1789. As power in Western Europe, the French Revolution quickly formed a spark of fire on the European continent, and the Netherlands, which was connected to the French landscape, was naturally deeply “infected.”
After the Netherlands was affected by the French Revolution, William V fled the United Kingdom, and then France supported the Republic of Batavia in the Netherlands and “accepted” the overseas colonies of the Netherlands, including Ceylon.
Later, in order to avenge, William V formed an alliance with Britain and made the transfer of overseas colonies a condition. Subsequently, the British occupied Colombo in Ceylon in 1796 and signed the Treaty of Amiens with France in 1802, which formally included Ceylon in the possession of the British royal family. Afterward, Britain eliminated the Kandy dynasty, which resisted stubbornly on the island, through two Kandy wars, and finally occupied the whole of Sri Lanka in 1815.
Because the status of the British royal family is undoubtedly higher than that of British India, Sri Lanka has never been above British India. This is also an important factor in Sri Lanka’s disdain for India. It is precise because of the different affiliations and different statuses that British India has always had no ambitions about Sri Lanka.
But who is the third brother? Although the inheritance of British India was almost completely inherited through the partition of India and Pakistan, he was not ashamed of the colonial history for more than 200 years but was proud of it, and even regarded himself as the successor of British India. But for Sri Lanka, India has always had the heart to break the tradition and forge ahead and deny history. This internationally well-known spirit of the old double standard has made Sri Lanka’s already unsafe international environment even worse.
What’s more terrible is that Sri Lanka’s ethnic and religious contradictions, which have been in constant chaos for thousands of years, have also given India, which is near the water, the space to fish in troubled waters.
As the ancient Indian people always attached great importance to the protection of the ecological environment, even if the Khyber Pass was so narrow that it could be “one man will be the gate, one man will not open”, he was still reluctant to build a fortification. So starting from the Aryans, conquerors from all walks of life went south through the Khyber Pass, stacking the ancient Indian civilization into a beautiful and delicious “melaleuca”. The Khyber Pass has also become a prestigious “green print channel” for thousands of years.
And because “wolves came from the north,” the original indigenous Dravidians were forced to migrate south, and some of the Dravidians crossed the ocean to Sri Lanka, and they continued to interbreed with the local indigenous people and eventually formed a monk. Garo people.
After the rise of the Maurya Dynasty, King Ashoka included Sri Lanka in the territory. Although the Sinhalese gave up Brahmanism and converted to Theravada Buddhism, the caste system remained.
Then the Hindu Tamil people invaded Sri Lanka, leading to a thousand-year-old religious confrontation in Sri Lanka.
After the rise of the Arab Empire in the 8th century, a large number of Muslims came to Sri Lanka along with the expansion of the empire, for the Moors.
So far, on the island of Sri Lanka, the Sinhalese who believe in Buddhism, the Tamils who believe in Hinduism and the Moors who believe in Islam have formed a three-legged situation. Although it seems stable, sect conflicts have led to intensified disputes and long-term melee on the small island.
When Portuguese and other Western colonists came in, Catholics and Protestants came from behind, making Sri Lanka’s religious and ethnic issues more complicated.
Therefore, facing Sri Lanka, which is small in size and on the side of the couch, the long-awaited Indian Harazi has already slumped.
As the main ethnic Sinhalese had little achievements in economic development, and the Tamils had been seeking autonomy in the east and north and established the LTTE to fan the flames everywhere, the civil war in Sri Lanka finally officially started in 1983.
Faced with the Tamil people’s struggle for independence and freedom, India was deeply infected, so it involuntarily gave generously to the Tamil people, asking the LTTE for money and guns. And in order to help the LTTE achieve its goal of rebelling as quickly as possible, India has even set up an LTTE training camp on the other side of Sri Lanka to cultivate the LTTE. Although the fighting power of the Indian army has been as sparse as a day for decades, it is more than enough to fan the flames in Sri Lanka.
But for helping, India found a very fatal problem, that is, there are more than 90 million Tamils in India. Do you support the Tamils on the other side to jump up and down, isn’t it just to sample the domestic Tamils on the spot? NS?
So embarrassing India, after a long period of contemplation, creatively put forward the historic decision of “continue to support the Tigers while presiding over mediation.”
The LTTE and the Sri Lankan government forces are very angry about this act of being a player and a referee, being a bitch, and setting up a memorial. Although they are not tolerant of water and fire all year round, they still unanimously told India that I bought a big watch last year.
Seeing that the situation became more and more chaotic and uncontrollable, the Rajiv Gandhi government of India finally made a fist and justice decision. With an order, 100,000 three brothers crossed the ocean and rushed to Sri Lanka. Then they were hit hard by various forces in Sri Lanka. In the end, after three years of tossing, the disgraced Indian army chose to wrap up and leave, and then the LTTE gave Rajiv Gandhi a great gift to “thank” India for its cross-cutting and sent it directly to the West.
The death of Rajiv Gandhi dealt an unprecedented blow to the Gandhi Nehru family, which had been in the Indian political arena for decades, and to some extent became the beginning of its prosperity and decline.
But the problem is that Rajiv Gandhi can “go”, but India will not go, and India is a country with great ambitions.
Because of Britain’s world-renowned partition of India and Pakistan, India and Pakistan have avoided tragic revolutions or wars when they were founded, but the positions of the two countries are quite embarrassing, although they rely on “religion” as the basis. The standard division makes India much larger than Pakistan, but it has to face the embarrassing fate of Pakistan occupying the Indus Valley and the Ganges estuary. And Kashmir, as a Muslim homeland led by Hindus, was regarded as the last “blind box” by the United Kingdom.
Therefore, the partition of India and Pakistan not only caused unprecedented religious flows and turmoil but also directly led to the outbreak of the first India-Pakistan war. Although Pakistan’s strength is far inferior to India, its combat power is half a catty to India’s. India was finally spanked and pissed in 1962 because of its unbridled challenge to its northern neighbors. This war not only discredited India in the international community but also inspired Pakistan and other South Asian countries. Since then, Sino-Pakistani relations have grown rapidly. As it heats up, “double-sided printing （the “printing” means attack India）” is gradually taking shape.
And as countries such as Nepal continue to stop using India as the third brother, the “3D printing” situation is even more innovative. Although India dismembered Pakistan in the Third Indo-Pakistani War in 1971 and annexed Sikkim in 1975, the half-siege of India has basically no room for display, especially the existence of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, which connected India to Seeking roots and asking ancestors in Central Asia has become an extravagant hope. Although attempting to gain a one-sided advantage with nuclear weapons, Pakistan’s 15-day nuclear “self-help research and development” capability instantly flattened the power gap between India and Pakistan, and India lost its granary as a result.
Therefore, India turned its attention to the ocean. After all, the colonists named the ocean in front of them “Indian Ocean”. Therefore, India has to regard the “Indian Ocean” as the “Ocean of India” without any explanation.
Seeing that India’s maritime ambitions are so urgent, Russia, as India’s half-brother, sees it and is anxious. Think about the friendship of India with colorful clouds coming to “repay the money” after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Russia waved a big hand and said, “As long as it is nine yuan, the aircraft carrier will drive home.” India bought it back at the price of a Baoding donkey meat an aircraft carrier that costs only a few billion dollars in conversion fees.
Russia’s great help, coupled with India’s decades of experience in operating aircraft carriers after World War II, Indian aircraft carriers can indeed walk horizontally, vertically, or even while walking in the Indian Ocean.
Therefore, Sri Lanka is destined to be doomed. However, the unparalleled road, the expansion of India, encountered the more arrogant United States, the existence of the Diego Garcia island military base, directly divided the US power in the Indian Ocean into three, truly “three-to-three” with India.
In front of the US aircraft carrier, it is useless for the Indian aircraft carrier to knock to the bottom of the sea, so Sri Lanka will not become the second place in Sikkim under the nose of the United States.
But the problem is that the United States is not online all year round, and it is never reliable. It counts on the United States to do its own thing. Sri Lanka said that I am not Ukraine or Georgia. Therefore, the great eastern country has always been a flock to Sri Lanka.
In fact, China and Sri Lanka started friendly exchanges as early as more than 1600 years ago. As the only place on the Maritime Silk Road, Sri Lanka, the country of Lions, has always been shining in ancient Chinese books. The famous monk Fa Xian visited here. .
During the Ming Dynasty, the king of a small country in Sri Lanka followed Zheng He’s fleet to the West to visit and study in the Daming High Prison.
After the founding of New China, Sri Lanka recognized New China in January 1950 and established diplomatic relations with New China in 1957.
Before the establishment of diplomatic relations, Sri Lanka signed the Rice Rubber Agreement with New China in 1952, which resolved the urgent needs of New China and laid the foundation for friendly relations between the two countries.
After the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Sri Lanka, the relationship between the two sides has continued to develop. Sri Lanka has played an important role in major issues such as New China’s return to the United Nations and accession to the World Trade Organization. New China has always been an important promoter of Sri Lanka’s economic construction. From Bandaranaike International Conference Center to Hambantota Port, the power of China’s infrastructure has become more and more important.
After supporting the reunification of Sri Lanka, since 2009, China’s loans to Sri Lanka have exceeded 5 billion U.S. dollars, which greatly exceeds that of Japan and India. This is an important factor in Sri Lanka’s post-war reconstruction. And today, more than 90% of large-scale projects and more than 50% of infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka have China busy.
So, in the face of such a large and trustworthy country, will Sri Lanka have an orientation towards the east? From the perspective of Jing Yeshi, Sri Lanka has a heart but is powerless, and although it has dreams, it is difficult to achieve.
Because Sri Lanka is too far away from China and too close to India. As a Pacific coast country, our influence in the Indian Ocean is still insufficient, especially per capita. But India is very close to Sri Lanka, how close is it? Even if you stand at one end of the Pawker Strait, the curry smell on the other side of the three brothers is enough to make people vomit. Although the strength of the Indian army continues to pull the hips, even with the use of biochemical weapons, it can still make Sri Lanka unhappy.
Coupled with the long-term influence of the United Kingdom and India on Sri Lanka, although Sri Lanka has benefited a lot from the Sino-Sri Lanka friendship, it is simply not realistic to truly go all the way to the east.
Moreover, there is still the distortion and slander of the so-called “pearl chain” strategy that the United States has concocted and India waited for Xiaoyao to respond. Sri Lanka still has a long way to go to rise up.
Although the current “Belt and Road” initiative has made Sri Lanka an important node or even a hub in the Indian Ocean, it will take time for Sri Lanka to truly “glow and heat” even when our comprehensive national strength still fails to achieve a decisive advantage.
However, it is believed that with the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, Sri Lanka’s future will inevitably break free from the shackles of India and move towards a truly bright future.
There are many omissions, please correct me.
I am Jing Ye Shi (Silent Night History) and look forward to your attention.
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Translated from the Headlines （Toutiao 头条新闻）
Author: Contemplative Tocqueville（沉思的托克维尔）
Will the United States collapse? This is a prevailing problem in China today. At first, I believed in Huntington’s theory very much, but as my experience grew, I became more and more convinced that Huntington should not be deified. It is necessary to maintain a complicated and cautious attitude towards the collapse of the United States.
For a rising power, arrogant misjudgment is always a fatal risk.
- Must Huntington be right?
Among the various theories on the collapse of the United States, the most striking are Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations” and “Who is the American”.
In the 1990s, when Americans were immersed in the victory of the Cold War, Huntington warned that the United States was in a severe civilized conflict and that the United States would face the threat of multiculturalism in the near future. Huntington worried that the influx of immigrants would destroy it. The American identity with Anglo Protestantism at its core has split the United States.
The series of turmoil in 2016-2020 seems to demonstrate Huntington’s predictions. Many people believe that the United States is irreversibly dying along with Huntington’s predictions. They believe that the election of Trump, the Freud incident, and the January 6th congressional riots represent the decline of the United States. Perhaps in 15 years, the United States will be divided into countless small countries, and then the U.S. hegemony will automatically end.
This logic seems impeccable, but today, loopholes in Huntington’s deduction can be found.
First of all, in Huntington’s prediction, it is not racial diversity but cultural diversity that really caused the collapse of the United States. Huntington is not worried that black Americans will destroy American identity. He is particularly worried about the influx of Latinos from the South. He is worried about Spain. The language society will replace English, the Catholic Church will replace Protestantism, and the United States will become a country with two cultures side by side, and will eventually split into two parts.
However, this situation did not happen in the United States. At present, Latinos account for 18.7% of the U.S. population, making them the largest minority ethnic group in the United States. However, so far, Latinos have not organized a huge parade, nor have they formed enough. In contrast to the powerful “anti-American” movement, Latinos are still among the best minorities in the United States. Many of them even support the Republican Party.
Bush won 40% of the Latino votes, Rubio, Cruz and other Latinos became the star members of the Republican Party. Even the racist Trump won 35% of the Latino votes and won twice. Florida.
According to data from the Pew Research Center, only 30% of Latinos believe that there is systemic racial discrimination in the United States and that the government structure in the United States should be completely changed. 58% of blacks and 18% of whites think so. If it is specific to whites On the left, 82% of white leftists believe that whites enjoy too much advantage, and 45% of white leftists believe that there is systemic racial discrimination in the United States, which is much higher than Latinos. Compared with the bitter hatred of blacks, Latinos do not think that the United States is a country with serious racial discrimination.
According to statistics from the Republican book “The Right State”, Latinos are still the ethnic group that emphasizes self-reliance most. In 2004, Republicans surprisingly discovered that Latinos are the ethnic group that most conforms to conservative expectations other than evangelicals. They found that Latino men have the highest labor force participation rate, the lowest labor union participation rate, and the degree of dependence on welfare. It is also very low. Only 17% of poor Latino immigrants live on welfare, while the figures for poor whites and poor blacks are 50% and 65% respectively.
Latinos are also the most family-oriented group in American society. They are most committed to starting their own businesses and leaving their property to future generations. The fertility rate of Latinos is the highest in the United States, reaching 2.5, and some of them are generally raised by new immigrants4 -6 children, the average income of Latinos is not high. The main reason is that many Latinos are new to the country and are very poor. With a large number of children, they have an average income, but they will soon be able to get out of poverty through struggle. By 2020, the poverty rate of Latinos Has been rapidly reduced.
They believe in Catholicism, value family, and do not rely on welfare. Latinos are far more in line with Huntington’s so-called Anglo-Protestant culture than white leftists. If Huntington’s American identity is only Anglo-Protestant, then I would like to ask someone who is not married, infertile, gay, and supports democratic socialism. Bai Zuo and a Latino who has a big family and believes in religion, which one is more in line with the so-called American spirit? According to Republican standards, it is obviously the latter.
(Which lesbian white leftist or Catholic Latino is more in line with Huntington’s Anglo-Protestant culture?)
It is precisely because of the overlap between Latino and conservatism that the Republican Party used to attract Latino as a policy. The author of “Right State” believes that the biggest mistake of the Republican Party is to reject immigration reform after Bush Jr. won the support of Latino, which has led to many Latinos. The descent is biased towards the Democratic Party.
In 2012, the four Republicans headed by Rubio once again proposed to welcome immigration reform and establish a multi-racial conservative alliance. After 2020, Rubio again proposed this idea, but the only comeback plan of the Republican Party was undermined by white racism. Radical Tea Party members still stubbornly reject Latinos. Even so, nearly 40% of Latinos support the Republican Party, and the Republican Party is still full of Latino lawmakers.
Compared with white leftists who support less than 10% of conservatism, Latinos are far more in line with Huntington’s so-called American tradition and American identity.
In fact, all deconstruction of American identity was initiated by the white left. Blacks, Latinos, and Asians were just the allies they were looking for. The essence of the American cultural dispute is not a dispute between whites and ethnic minorities, but white leftists. In the dispute between the white and the right, Huntington ignored this essential contradiction and simplified the complicated class, geographical, and economic conflicts between the white left and the white right into a dispute between Latinos and whites. The dispute between Spanish and English is suspected of shifting the contradiction.
(I have emphasized the division of Latino more than once, but many people still ignore it.)
At present, the Economist has published many articles calling for the United States to pay attention to the non-liberal leftists in universities, which shows that many Americans have realized that the essence of this tearing has always been an internal struggle among white people.
Just like the Civil War, the United States is faced with the question of where to go in the future. Whether to follow the pluralism and welfare state or stick to the American tradition, this obviously can only be decided by white elites. (The essence of the Civil War was the contradiction between the northern industrial states and the southern agricultural states (the liberation of slaves was just away), two routes)
To believe that the increase in ethnic minorities will definitely undermine the United States, and to stubbornly believe that even white leftists believe in American traditions more than ethnic minorities is itself a biased misjudgment. Huntington has been proved completely wrong in this prediction.
- Is the political tear in the United States irreversible?
After talking about Huntington’s predictions, let’s talk about the political tear in the United States. Starting in 2020, many people believe that the political tear in the United States has reached an irreversible level. Fukuyama also invented the term veto-based America to express American politics. Has lost the ability to compromise.
These analyses are of course true, but it remains to be seen whether this tearing has reached the point of destroying a country. No matter how chaotic the United States looks, so far, no movement has clearly proposed to separate from the United States, and no movement has formed a split organization. In a chaotic carnival, the United States has once again fallen into calm.
The seemingly mighty Freud demonstrations, apart from partially advancing the reform of the American police system, have no harm to the American political system. The decentralization of this movement is more like the vent of poor people’s emotions under the epidemic. One fact is Many blacks are not committed to sports but take the opportunity to snatch Nike shoes.
Except for taking the opportunity to grab some property and demanding more benefits, black people have no desire to subvert the American system. Those black leaders and Democratic politicians have returned to the framework of the representative system after the campaign, as long as such disputes are still limited to the representative system. Next, it’s hard to say that the United States will collapse.
Whether the movement is so destructive depends not on how many people marched and how chaotic the streets are, but on whether the movement has subversive goals and organizational power. Obviously, any movement in the United States today lacks these two characteristics. Today’s black movement is far less radical than the Black Panther Party in the 1960s, and the scale of today’s black movement is not even comparable to the 1992 Los Angeles Riot. The black movement is actually fading rather than improving.
(Compared to the Black Panther Party, today’s zero dollar purchase has almost zero subversion of the American political system)
Compared with the Freud incident, the congressional riots on January 6 are more threatening. It represents a group of people who no longer believe in the American democratic system. Republicans’ resistance to the epidemic also seems to show the severity of political tearing. Many Republicans are not only rejecting vaccinations because of vaccine conspiracy theories but because of their hatred of Democrats.
Not being vaccinated represents the attitude of resisting the Democratic Party. Just as a right-wing TV station’s conspiracy theory said: Biden’s mandatory vaccination is a conspiracy because Sichuan fans will oppose all the Democratic Party’s policies. Sichuan fans were killed by the virus, and the Democratic Party naturally won.
For Republicans, they and the Democratic Party are in the midst of a culture war. It determines which line will dominate the future of the United States. Compared with the conflict between whites and minorities, the conflict between the white left and the white right is more intense, just like The Civil War was essentially a struggle between two groups of whites.
The fundamental contradiction of this divergence lies in the fact that after globalization, the gap within the United States has infinitely widened, and the states are clearly differentiated, and it is difficult to extend the experience of one state to other states. Every federal policy will encounter the phenomenon of dissatisfaction.
For example, environmental protection. For states such as Vermont and New York that do not rely on energy industries, they can naturally sing environmental protection, but for states such as West Virginia that are extremely dependent on the coal industry, the Democratic Party’s clean power plan is tantamount to disaster. This contradiction also occurs. Between Beijing and Hebei.
(Manchin is a Democrat, but he often works with Republicans because West Virginia is a state that relies heavily on coal and believes in religion)
For example, homosexuality and abortion are naturally good policies in cities on the east and west coasts, but it is a bad policy for devout believers.
Another example is gun control. It is a disaster to own a gun in a big city, but in the sparsely populated southern wilderness, a gun is an indispensable tool for self-defense and livelihood (hunting).
There is also the issue of welfare and high taxes. Many people wonder why many Republicans are poor but do not support big government, high taxes, and welfare. In addition to religious concepts, most Republican states are poor states, and all states are poor. Under the circumstances, people here need more job opportunities rather than benefits. For this state with fewer wealthy people, the redistribution policy is obviously unattractive, which is completely different from California.
It is this gap in development between regions that have caused the root of the tear. The California leftists believe that a good thing is completely untrue in the southern states. This kind of consideration of local interests has made the struggle in Congress intensified. At present, this kind of tearing The rift still cannot be resolved, but for every big country, internal gaps and tears are inevitable. It is just that some big countries can suppress it through strong centralization, but this does not mean that there is no contradiction.
Although there are various tears, we still have to see that the two parties can still reach a consensus on many issues.
In the field of diplomacy, both parties advocate that the United States should move from Europe and the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, and believe that the core task of American diplomacy is to confront China. No matter how lofty Biden is, there is a unilateralism in his diplomacy. The harm that AUKUS has done to France is a classic example.
Biden, like Trump, did not abolish tariffs on China, and both advocated bringing key supply chains back to the United States and claimed to represent American workers and the middle class. Biden’s middle-class diplomacy is not fundamentally different from Trump’s American priority. Some people describe Biden’s diplomacy as Trumpism without Trump.
In the internal affairs field, although the Republicans opposed many of the Democratic bills, in the infrastructure bill, 13 Republicans voted in favor and passed the bill with a large score of 67:32, which shows that the two parties can still reach an agreement.
Regarding the epidemic, both Biden and Trump have adopted a policy of releasing water. Although all Republicans opposed Biden’s economic bailout bill, they privately boasted that the bailout was their own credit. Obviously, their opposition was sometimes political skills rather than political skills. Real attitude.
The political tear in the United States is serious, but it is not so true that many people say that it will lead to the collapse of the United States. If you compare it vertically, the tear in the United States today is far less than the Civil War and the civil rights movement in the 1960s, perhaps just like the author of New York Time Midnight It is said that the crisis facing the United States today is far less than the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the current crisis is not enough to unite Americans and reach a consensus that breaks through American traditions in the 1930s.
The tear will always exist, but whether the tear is enough to cause the collapse of a country remains to be seen. Other problems, such as the gap between the rich and the poor and the high government debt, are not the reason for the collapse of the United States. (The U.S. state government has a lot of surpluses and debts to the federal government, and the basis for the United States to issue bonds is financial and military hegemony. If these two do not fall, it will be difficult for the debt to knock down the United States.)
- Relative decline cannot be equated with collapse
In fact, the fundamental reason why the theory of the collapse of the United States is so raging is that our country has developed too fast in recent years.
Compared to China’s rapid development, the United States has indeed been slower, but this slowness is relative to China. If compared with Europe and Japan, the United States is still the most economically dynamic country. If China is left behind, the United States’ economy, technology, and military are still unmatched, the United States remains the most potential developed economy.
In July 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday sharply raised the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2021 from 4.6% in April to 7.0%. The epidemic did not stop the U.S. economic recovery, and the U.S. is still the world’s economic growth. Engine.
In 1992, there was a Los Angeles riot in the United States that was several times more chaotic than the Freud demonstration, but the Chinese at that time never dared to imagine the collapse of the United States, because China was too poor at that time and was not in the same order of magnitude as the United States. Now that China is strong, and it is about to surpass the United States, it will exaggerate the US riots and regard it as a signal of the collapse of the United States. It is China that is changing, not the United States.
The American collapse theory is a manifestation of the Chinese people’s self-confidence in the new era, but if this self-confidence is not restrained, it is likely to become defiant arrogance and cause irreparable losses.
In the 1970s, seeing the United States suffered the humiliation of the Vietnam War and the chaos of the civil rights movement, Brezhnev announced in a high-profile manner that the Soviet Union’s victory was just around the corner, and announced a series of policies to expand exports and improve welfare, and invaded Afghanistan at the end of 1979. , Opened the prelude to the decline of the Soviet Union from prosperity.
Similarly, the Plaza Accord in the 1980s was not simply forcing Japan by the United States. Japan itself was confused by the dream of surpassing the United States. It is believed that the appreciation of the yen could promote the internationalization of the yen. Later, Japan adopted a more radical financial policy, which eventually led to The collapse of the bubble economy in the 1990s.
For a rising power, his greatest enemy is his own arrogance. Many rising powers fell on the last mile. They deceived themselves and summed up various general trends that seemed destined, expecting their opponents to collapse on their own, and finally ignored them. In response to his own problems, he made countless radical and wrong decisions.
Many big chess parties dream about grand strategies that seem to be all-encompassing and make various grand predictions like gods. However, success or failure in reality often depends on specific decisions. A bad decision may destroy all previous results. .
Before the victory is achieved, there must not be a trace of arrogance. The final victory is a hundred times more important than temporary vanity. The final winners have excellent fortunes and a real spirit of seeking truth from facts, as opposed to exaggerating the American collapse theory. Instead, it’s better to focus on solving your own problems. The arrogant and irrational theory of the collapse of the United States should end.
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Translated from the Headlines （Toutiao 头条新闻）
Author: Bao Ming Shuo（包明说）
In 1975 of the last century, the United States ended the Vietnam War briefly and entered a stage of reflection and adjustment. With Reagan coming to power, the United States seemed to regain its vitality and finally won the Cold War in the late 1980s and early 1990s, forcing the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The United States has also ushered in another golden age in its own history. In the summer of 2021, the United States experienced another defeat in Afghanistan. So, will the United States become more powerful as it did after the Vietnam War, and even defeat China?
George Marano, an Australian research scholar, believes: I am afraid that it is impossible for the United States today to repeat history. Because there is still hope for the United States in 1975. Today, neoliberalism has emptied American finances, undermined America’s reputation, and exacerbated social inequality and ethnic tensions. Therefore, it is difficult for the United States to rise again.
From 1975 to the present, nearly 50 years have passed. The United States in 1975 can still be counted as an emerging power. But since Reagan’s advocacy of neoliberalism came to power, the situation in the United States has changed a lot. Back then, the harm of neoliberalism could not be seen in a short period of time, but to this day, neoliberalism has corroded the body of the United States so severely that it cannot be undone.
The so-called neoliberalism is an economic thought that was introduced to the United States in the 1970s. The basic principle of this kind of economic thinking is to increase efficiency as the goal, find the place with the greatest return on investment in the world, and invest capital in it. It is said that this is the origin of globalization. Under the principles of neoliberalism, the U.S. government and large companies increasingly prefer to outsource work. The government not only outsources general business but also outsources war business. One-third to one-half of the military expenditures used by the United States in the war in Afghanistan were given to various private military contractors. Needless to say, there is corruption in it.
The biggest goal of neoliberalism is to make money, and the most important means is to stimulate personal greed, and to make this kind of behavior efficient and legal. This greed has made American companies no longer loyal to American national interests. A position of “capital is higher than the state” was formed. In the past ten years, even though the US government is struggling to seek the return of manufacturing, US companies’ investment in China has been increasing year by year. After Trump launched the trade war in 2020, US companies’ investment in China has reached 123.88 billion U.S. dollars.
From 1975 to today, the manufacturing industry in the United States has been worsening every day. During this period, the U.S.’s share in the global economy continued to decline, from 28% in 1975 to 15.9% in 2020 and is expected to drop to 14.76% by 2026. However, Americans owe more and more debts, and their ratio to GDP has risen from 32% to 125%. This means that Americans spend all their output value in a year to pay off their debts, which is not enough.
Under neoliberalism, the famous “revolving door rule” was also created. Some people can jump back and forth between the three roles of government officials, lobbyists, and private sector executives to help capital groups maximize their profits.
Three major events have changed the balance of power in the United States and have truly put capital above politics. The first is that the United States repealed the “Glass-Steagall Act” in 1999, which prohibits commercial banks from merging with investment banks. After the bill was repealed, the capital group was like a wild horse that had taken off its reins, which finally led to the global financial crisis in 2008. The second is China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. The third is the “war on terrorism” initiated by the United States after the September 11 incident.
Neoliberalism completely controls American politics, and the result is that the United States has fallen into a state of dysfunctional chaebols. The corrosive effect of money in politics makes the ruling elites less and less concerned about the lives of ordinary people. Professor Richard Alston pointed out in the 2017 “American Poverty Report” that 40 million Americans are already living in poverty, of which nearly 18.5 million are in extreme poverty.
Partisan politics is intertwined with increasing social inequality, leading to increasingly serious racial and class contradictions in American society. The Capitol riots, “black life is also fate”, and the rise of anti-fascist movements are all concrete manifestations.
The most extreme example of neoliberalism in the United States is the addiction of the American public to painkillers, also known as the opioid crisis. The depravity of enterprises, the flattery of the government, and the betrayal of the medical profession have all contributed to this consequence. In 2020, the opioid crisis caused more than 70,000 overdose deaths and has become a major factor in the decline in life expectancy in the United States. However, the Trump administration has tried to shirk the opioid crisis in China.
Some research scholars pointed out that although many Americans are talking about the Thucydides trap between the United States and China, the discussion about whether China and the United States will inevitably move toward confrontation. But the more pressing issue is that the United States is slowly destroying itself. The United States must work hard to solve its own structural problems in the next ten years. This is not only related to the stability of the United States but also related to the stability of the global order.
Can the United States heal and redeem itself? Can’t do it. To make the United States abandon neoliberalism is tantamount to subverting the basic national policy of the United States in the past 50 years. Such subversion is basically impossible without a large-scale hot war. The United States is afraid that it will continue to move forward on the road of destruction.
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