500 million dollars stump Nepal? Faced with the coercion and temptation of US aid, how should Nepal choose?

Translated from the Headlines (Toutiao 头条新闻)

Author: Silent Night History(静夜史)

Nepal, a landlocked country between China and India, but often coveted by the United States.

On June 1, 2001, in Nepal in the southern foothills of the Himalayas, the bloody murder of the royal family occurred that shocked the world.

Because of a fierce dispute with the queen over choosing a mate, Crown Prince Dipendra slaughtered at the royal family’s monthly royal banquet. Under the frenzied burst of UZI submachine guns and M-16 automatic rifles, the 55-year-old King Birendra, Queen Ashwarya, 51, Prince Nilajan, 22, Princess Shi Lu, 24, and Princess Sharada and Princess Shanti, sisters of King Birendra, and his brother-in-law, Kuma-Kaza, died on the spot. , Prince Dylandra, another member of the royal family, was seriously injured.

After the assault, Crown Prince Dipendra committed suicide and fell into a coma. He was later appointed as the new king by the Nepal Council of State. King Dipendra died on June 4 and his uncle Gyanendra succeeded him as king.

The outbreak of the royal bloody case caused an uproar in the international community. The succession of the suspect, Gyanendra, made the Nepalese people furious. Then they took to the streets to hold demonstrations and demand Gyanendra’s abdication. In the end, it turned into a tragic riot.

In the face of boiling public grievances, King Gyanendra changed the kindness of the royal family in the past, ordered severe suppression, and gradually embarked on the path of dictatorship, and even became pro-government after the dissolution of the government in 2005. Subsequently, the main political parties formed a seven-party alliance and jointly launched the second “people’s movement” with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), which finally forced King Gyanendra to abdicate in 2008. This marked the end of the Shah dynasty, and Nepal finally ended the monarchy that lasted for 239 years.

However, despite ushering in a new era of the republic, Nepal’s productivity level is still stagnant. Due to the embarrassing location in the southern foothills of the Himalayas and India’s decades of siege and interception, and because of the turbulent domestic turmoil, Nepal is as happy as Bhutan, but economic development has always been a mess

Poverty brings not only the embarrassment of being stretched out but also the embarrassment of low dignity.

Therefore, when the $500 million red envelopes fell from the sky, there was no wave in Nepal’s heart. It was a typical self-deception. And this “sincere not to deceive Nepal” is the United States on the other side of the ocean.

In September 2017, the then-U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan signed the “Millennium Challenge Company Agreement”, referred to as the MCC Agreement, in Washington with the former Congress Party government of Nepal.

According to the content of the MCC agreement, the United States will support Nepal in the construction of approximately 300 kilometers of 400 kV transmission lines and three substations.

For Nepal, which is poor and backward and is choked by India from time to time, the aid of the United States can be said to have been a timely help. But everyone on the earth knows that there is no free lunch in the world, and the United States does not provide charcoal professionally. Therefore, Nepal read the agreement carefully after rejoicing and felt that things were not that simple.

For example, once the agreement comes into force, it will be superior to Nepal’s domestic law; the conditions in the annex to the agreement need to be implemented with India’s consent; the final audit of MCC-supported projects is entirely the responsibility of the United States, and Nepal cannot participate.

This means that once Nepal accepts this treaty, it will not only recognize the extraterritoriality of the United States and surrender its own sovereignty, but also allow India to step in. So this agreement to be a father in Nepal and find a big brother has not yet reached the step of soliciting comments, and the majority of Nepalese people are once again out of anger.

They carried out the coffins with the words “MCC” written on them one after another, which meant that the funeral of the agreement couldn’t be more obvious.

In view of the fact that the domestic situation in Nepal has never ceased, in order to avoid the agreement of meat buns hitting dogs-there is no return, the United States specifically requires that the agreement must be approved by the Nepalese House of Representatives.

And because the agreement stipulates that while the United States invests US$500 million, Nepal also needs to invest US$130 million, so the House of Representatives disagreed at that time.

After all, under the framework of U.S. dollar oil hegemony, not to say 500 million U.S. dollars, that is 5 billion or 50 billion, is just a matter of turning on the money printing machine for a while and producing a few more money printing papers. But for poor Nepal, The US$130 million is definitely a costly expenditure.

Therefore, the more Nepal looks at the agreement, the more it feels like a lottery in a mall, but you must add money to receive gifts. In view of the fact that it might have to pay back to the United States, it is more tragic than the loss of the wife and the collapse of the army. Therefore, even if the political situation in Nepal changed in July this year, and Deuba, who is generally considered to be pro-American, became prime minister, the Nepal House of Representatives also adheres to the tenet of “a dead pig is not afraid of boiling water” and firmly disagrees with MCC

In the face of the stupid behavior of not taking money, the United States has shown a strong spirit of “hating iron but not steel”. In September, MCC Vice President Fatima Sumar made it clear that Nepal must make a decision as soon as possible for this “gift from the American people to the Nepalese people”, either through an agreement or abandoning it. The U.S. cannot wait indefinitely.

Then the Nepalese House of Representatives announced adjournment on October 29 and decided to postpone the approval of the MCC agreement.

Seeing Nepal’s ignorance, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kelly Kettering arrived in Kathmandu on November 17 and 18, respectively, and met with Nepal’s official and civil forces. Discuss the implementation of the MCC agreement.

With the United States becoming increasingly impatient, Donald Lu declared that the United States would not force Nepal to approve the MCC agreement, let alone set a deadline. But said that if Nepal does not accept the grant, the United States will give the money to other countries.

This is a statement that gave Nepal a sigh of relief. After all, it is too hot to thank the US$500 million. If Nepal really takes it, let alone burns the whole body, it will inevitably be burned.

However, judging from the repeated threats and threats made by the United States, since the money has been decided to give to Nepal, Nepal must accept it. After all, Nepal’s rights may not be enjoyed, but the obligations must be fulfilled, otherwise the old face of the United States. Where to put it? How does the chicken look at it? How does the cow think about it? How does the white elephant look at it? How will you get mixed up in the colonial circle in the future?

Therefore, Nepal is under great pressure, but it has to continue. Because for Nepal, the United States is too far away and China and India are too close. The United States can make promises and spread money wildly, but Nepal has to consider the factors of China and India, especially India.

Although the MCC agreement stipulates that the conditions stated in the annex need to be approved by India, this has given India a lot of faces, and the Indian Modi government is indeed determined to “abandon Russia and invest in the United States” in 2020 and become an indispensable follower of the United States. However, the US’s turmoil in India’s “backyard” and Nepal’s slamming songs have undoubtedly made India quite uncomfortable.

Although India is well aware that the fundamental purpose of the United States jumping up and down in Nepal is to target its northern neighbors. But the problem is that once Nepal becomes a new battlefield for Sino-US confrontation, it will inevitably “fire at the gates of the city and cause damage to the pond.” Although Nepal’s sloping terrain has given India the conditions to “say Cao Cao Cao Cao will arrive”, once Nepal’s landslides, India, which is “close to the water,” will inevitably bear the brunt.

Therefore, despite India’s long-term dissatisfaction with its northern neighbors, it still does not want Nepal to change. After all, this place is within easy reach of the core areas such as the capital New Delhi and the Ganges Plain. It is extremely easy to turn the war of aggression into the defense of the capital, recreating the classic scene of the defeat in 1962.

Therefore, for the big brother’s deviant operations, there are always 10,000 sacred cows running back and forth in India’s heart.

As far as Nepal is concerned, although “you sing and I will appear” in the political arena has never stopped, there may be a pro-US alliance in the future and promote the passage of the MCC agreement, but this cannot be used as a basis for Nepal and the United States to fight together because Nepal can ignore it. India is unhappy, but it can’t avoid the mighty power on the other side of the Himalayas.

To put it bluntly, Nepal is not Mongolia, let alone Turkey, and cannot afford the cost of failure.

It should be said that although the transition area is 147,000 square kilometers and the population of more than 26 million is not worth mentioning in front of India, Nepal has never lived more transparently than India.

As the birthplace of Buddhism, one of the three major religions, the history of Nepal is more splendid than ancient India.

Although wearing the hats of the four ancient civilizations, because of the “filial piety” of the Khyber Pass, conquerors from all walks of life rushed to “come in admirably”, pressing the ancient Indian civilization layer by layer into a beautiful meal. “Thousand-layer cakes”, ancient India also crawled forward in a thousand years of knees and greets.

And because the topography of the southern foothills of the Himalayas directly faces the Ganges Plain, the conquerors are always accustomed to including Nepal by the way. During the thousands of years of “integration” between Nepal and ancient India, the South Asian subcontinent has experienced Buddhism and Hinduism. Ebb and flow, Nepal has become a veritable Hindu country.

Because Nepal is dominated by mountainous terrain, it can maintain a certain degree of independence compared to ancient India. Although the Himalayas towered into the clouds, they could not stop the powerful radiation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. For example, the Tubo Dynasty and Nepal were also included in the Sino-Tibetan language family.

In 1247, the Mongol Empire and the Tubo high-level “two-week alliance” marked the official inclusion of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau into the territory of the Central Plains dynasty, and Nepal became a vassal state of the Mongol Yuan Empire.

After the establishment of the Shah dynasty in 1768, it unified Nepal and invaded Tibet in 1789. It was subsequently killed by the Qing army in 1792 and became a vassal state of the Qing dynasty again.

At that time, the British East India Company was rampant, and it had already laid a world in the South Asian subcontinent and extended its devil’s claws to Nepal in the north.

In 1814, 30,000 British troops invaded Nepal. Although they suffered heavy losses, they eventually forced Nepal to sign the “Treaty of Segori” in 1815, cutting away more than one-third of Nepal’s land.

After this battle, the British fully realized the powerful combat effectiveness of Nepalese soldiers, so the British army has the Gurkha Army from then on. In Nepal’s frequent resistance, Britain finally decided to recognize Nepal’s independence in 1923 and signed a permanent treaty with it, on the condition that it retains a large number of privileges in Nepal.

This has also become the legal basis for India to influence Nepal.

Because the “India-Pakistani partition” in 1947 was a peaceful division of families rather than a merger with swords and guns, the founding of India has never experienced a tragic revolution or war. Compared with British India, the ruling class only changed the soup and not the medicine.

Therefore, after independence, the Indian team has never been ashamed but proud of its colonial history for more than 300 years. It is even more grateful for the British colonists, and there are endless and honorable words.

Therefore, in the “Indian Dream” setting of Nehru’s “Indian Dream” that after independence, India was “either impressive or disappearing, and would never accept second-rate roles.” Yes, it is not available in British India, and India must have it. The so-called “If there is a difficulty, we must go up, and if there is no difficulty, we must go up.” It seems logical that India inherits the rights of British India in Nepal.

In 1950, India and Nepal signed a treaty of peace and friendship, which fully inherited the privileges of British India in Nepal.

In 1951, the Nepalese royal family regained power with the support of India and implemented a constitutional monarchy, but Indian control exacerbated Nepal’s internal turmoil.

In 1962, Nepal stipulated Nepal as a Hindu monarchy in its constitution, and its relationship with India became closer.

Beginning with British India, it invaded Sikkim and Bhutan by the racial exchange. Nepalese are recognized as pawns. After India’s independence, the two countries cooperated more closely and eventually pushed India to completely annex Sikkim in 1975.

Nepal is also chilling under the control of India. Because it is surrounded by India on three sides and the Himalayas are so high, Nepal can be said to be controlled by India everywhere. Any dissatisfaction will immediately be retaliated by India.

In the Sino-Indian War of 1962, Nepal saw India’s foreign powers and the strong power of its neighbors in the north. Since then, Nepal, like other South Asian countries that have suffered from India for a long time, has begun to seek to improve its relations with its neighbors in the north.

Earlier, under the instigation of India, Nepal and its northern neighbors were at war on the sovereignty issue of Mount Everest, which also promoted the success of the northern neighbors’ summit from the northern slope of Mount Everest in 1960.

However, after the Sino-Indian War, Sino-Nepal relations quickly warmed up. For example, the Sino-Nepal Highway started construction in 1963 and successfully opened to traffic in 1967. The completion of the China-Nepal Highway freed Nepal from the embarrassing situation of relying entirely on India. Since then, it has had the confidence to challenge India. A typical incident is that in 1969, Nepal requested the Indian military advisory group in Nepal to withdraw.

Seeing that the overlord was unable to make a bow, in order to prevent Nepal from looking north, India turned to continue to draw Nepal, and India’s ubiquitous influence in Nepal is also an important external cause of Nepal’s turmoil.

In 1961, after King Mahendra announced the prohibition of all political party activities, the Nepal Congress Party and the Communist Party of Nepal began a constant struggle for political status.

In 1996, the Communist Party of Nepal launched the People’s War and the Nepal Civil War broke out, which lasted until 2005. After the murder of the Nepalese royal family in 2001, the United States barbarically invaded Nepal’s internal affairs in the name of anti-terrorism.

Under the combined pressure of the United States and India, the Nepalese royal family had to “return power to the people” in 2008.

The United States is intervening in Nepal’s internal affairs. One is threatening its northern neighbors, and the other is monitoring India. It can be said that both China and India are very upset. As Nepal has become a country in the cracks, it can be said that the threat is always there.

In order to avoid becoming cannon fodder in the game between the great powers, Nepal is determined to abandon the policy of sitting on the fence and building good relations with its northern neighbors.

Since 2003, the China-Nepal Highway has undergone a large-scale expansion, and the capacity has continued to increase. Nepal’s dependence on India has further reduced.

In 2006, the Qinghai-Tibet Railway was fully completed and then extended to Shigatse and other places; in 2019, at the “Belt and Road” summit forum, the China-Nepal railway project from Geelong to Kathmandu, which is about 170 kilometers long, was listed as a key point, which means that Nepal completely got rid of Indian influence is just around the corner.

In 2015, India was dissatisfied with Nepal’s promulgation of a new constitution, announcing an informal embargo on gasoline and diesel to Nepal. Then Nepal had to ask for help from its northern neighbors and received more generous support.

Beginning in 2017, the Chinese and Nepalese armed forces have held joint military training every year; in 2018, China and Nepal signed an economic and trade agreement allowing Nepal to use 4 seaports and 3 dry ports in its northern neighbors for international trade.

Compared with India’s close proximity, the northern neighboring countries are farther away in terms of humanistic distance, so Nepal is more at ease. Therefore, Nepal completely refused to take India as the third brother, and regained the disputed land without procrastinating, making India obviously very angry but helpless.

Nepal has now joined the printing deluxe package.

It can be said that although Nepal’s political situation has been turbulent for a long time, the special location determines that Nepal’s public opinion will inevitably end in a miserable situation if it goes south or west. Only the relationship with the north becomes more and more harmonious. The future of Nepal will only get better and better.

Therefore, in the face of the U.S.’s statement that Nepal will be a partner of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy in 2018, Nepal immediately clarified its denial, and its understanding of its own position is quite accurate.

The future of Nepal will definitely benefit from the “Belt and Road” initiative, while the troubled waters of the United States and India’s duplicity will be abandoned by history.

There are many omissions, please correct me.

I am Silent Night History and look forward to your attention.