The flames of war will not disturb Chinese companies anymore, and the situation of Ethiopian civil war will be reversed: there is a high probability that we will continue to follow the Chinese route

Translated from the Headlines (Toutiao 头条新闻)

Author: Poplar Observation Room(白杨观察室)


In recent days, the civil war that broke out in Ethiopia, an East African country, has entered its mid-to-late stage. From a military standpoint alone, the overall situation of the Ethiopian civil war tends to be one-sided, but this one-sidedness does not mean that the Ethiopian government forces are as powerful as they are in a sweeping sweep, but that the Ethiopian government forces have been beaten by local armed forces of various factions. Looking for teeth on the ground, throwing away helmets, and abandoning armor, compared with the early and middle stages of the civil war, the overall situation has undergone a fundamental reversal. Compared with the war on the front line, there are still some special details on the Ethiopian civil war that deserve attention. For example, whether it is government forces or local armed forces, they have basically achieved a large amount of assistance in the process of fighting. Chinese companies have never committed a crime, which seems to have become an invisible tacit agreement that both sides of the war must abide by. And as far as the current situation is concerned, there is still a very great possibility in the near future, that is, the future development of Ethiopia’s national development may continue to follow the “Chinese route.”

The defeated Ethiopian government forces

First of all, let’s talk about the current situation of the Ethiopian civil war. According to the summary of the latest news, the current situation of the Ethiopian government forces is quite bad. Earlier this year, I suffered three major defeats in June and was chased by its main opponent, Tigray, by armed forces. Several elite field divisions were collectively defeated and defeated. The Tigray Armed Forces initially announced that they had captured at least 7,000 government soldiers. In the subsequent great victories, they have successively captured many government prisoners. The total number must be at least tens of thousands of people. It’s just a prisoner, and the enemy troops wiped out on the battlefield are not counted. It may sound exaggerated, but the live photos sent back by many well-known media such as Reuters are really exaggerated. The mighty army of government prisoners crowded the streets and could not be seen at a glance. Such a large scale of capture is counted as the battle. With casualties and various attritions, it is not an exaggeration to say that the government army has been defeated like a mountain.

A team of prisoners who can’t see their heads at a glance

As one of the underdeveloped countries in the Third World, Ethiopia, like many African countries that have been invaded by the West for a long time, has established diplomatic and cooperative relations with China in various fields very early. In recent years, China’s assistance projects to Ethiopia are not insignificant, covering many fields such as communications, transportation, and infrastructure construction. In Ethiopia, they are basically blooming and developing in an all-around way. It stands to reason that in Ethiopia, which has been a year since the outbreak of the full-scale civil war, the Chinese-aided projects should have been suspended due to the war. But the actual situation is that the two sides of the war seem to have an invisible tacit understanding, whether it is the government army or the local armed forces, almost nothing has been done to the Chinese aided enterprises.

China has a lot of cooperation with Ethiopia

For example, the Asia-Djibouti Railway aided by China has so far been unimpeded, and the Chinese-aided “Oriental Industrial Park” enterprise cluster in Addis Ababa has still maintained a relatively low level of normal operation. These phenomena are enough to explain an objective reality: Although the forces of the warring parties in the Ethiopian civil war are complicated, their attitudes towards China are almost always recognized and respected. This can be seen from practical actions alone. This is certainly related to the traditional and profound friendship between China and Ethiopia, but at the same time, it also needs to take into account the image of a peaceful and responsible great country that China has long shaped, established, and maintained in the international arena, and that China is today The international influence of the real world powers, the influence of power and other factors are comprehensively considered.

When the epidemic came, China was also the first big country to help Ethiopia

In short, it is not accidental that the factions of the Ethiopian Civil War did not commit a crime against Chinese companies, and some other things can be analyzed and derived from it. As the biggest “victor” in this civil war so far, Tigray, who has beaten government forces all the way and won more and loses less, maintains a very friendly attitude towards China. One thing that needs to be pointed out is that the existence of Tigray’s armed forces is quite special. It can be regarded as a special existence that was driven back to Tigray State after the death of former Prime Minister Meles and the huge political changes in Ethiopia. Previously, the Tigray political forces, which formed and led the Tigray local armed forces, were part of the Ethiopian government. Most of its military and political leaders were senior officials of the former Ethiopian government. For example, the current leader of Tigray State: Debrezi Weng is very friendly to China and has repeatedly expressed his desire to have a good relationship with China in public.

Debretsion Gebremichael has been friendly to China for a long time

Debrezion had maintained a very friendly attitude towards China when he served as deputy prime minister and minister of communications in the Ethiopian national government. He successively invited ZTE, Huawei, and other Chinese technology companies to enter Ethiopia for cooperation in the name of the country. Technology has built a large number of optical fiber networks, 4G infrastructure, etc. Even after being pushed back to Tigray due to political squeeze, Debrezion still emphasized that “Tizhou still welcomes Chinese friends and opens the door for Chinese companies to invest and develop.” Therefore, even before the government forces invaded Tizhou, the normal operation of Chinese companies in Tigray State was still well guaranteed in the days when the final battle was about to come. With the massive counterattack of Tigray’s armed forces, the government forces were driven out in one breath to a great victory, and the front was moved a lot forward. Some Chinese companies that had been harassed by the war also returned to tranquility.

The Tigray armed forces seized a large number of advanced weapons of the government, including the A-200 long-range rocket launcher made in China

Considering that the current international environment is still under the influence of the new crown epidemic, the economies of Western countries, including the United States, are basically in a state of weakness and weakness, even if they can recover from the epidemic and its collateral effects in the next few years It will take a long time to get out and complete its own recovery. It is impossible to expand overseas markets on a large scale, or even enter a country that has just ended the civil war. However, the Chinese economy under the epidemic situation is, on the contrary, it is still in a state of rapid development. The fluctuations have laid the foundation for Chinese companies to further expand their overseas markets. Ethiopia, whose infrastructure is in urgent need of assistance, also happens to correspond to the field that China is best at. After all, the nickname of “infrastructure madman” is not to boast.

China-aided dam project in Ethiopia

The situation mentioned above can also be seen by the entire world, including various factions in Ethiopia. Therefore, no matter who the ultimate winner of the Ethiopian civil war will be, the introduction of the Chinese economy is believed to be impossible. This is an indispensable part. This can be seen from the fact that Chinese companies are investing in Egypt and are still getting good protection despite the constant war. In other words, for Ethiopia itself, this is the best manifestation of the future development of the country will still follow the “Chinese route.”