China’s economy is gaining momentum, with GDP reaching RMB 82 trillion in the first three quarters, which will exceed 80% of the US

Translated from the Headlines (Toutiao 头条新闻)

Author: See Smart Finance (见智财经)

In the past 40 years, the Chinese economy has shown tremendous vitality and power to the world, and the economic miracle created has amazed the world. In the past year or so, China’s economy has fully demonstrated its resilience and the powerful social governance capabilities behind it under the raging epidemic situation around the world.

In special difficult times, China used its advantages to win economic development in adversity. Now, China’s economic data presents the real situation of the economic development of various countries like an answer sheet.

For a long time, as a developing country, China has come from poverty and weakness and has always looked up to Western developed countries. In the eyes of many of us, the economy of the United States and Japan is a distant goal that we cannot reach. When the total GDP of China surpassed that of Japan in 2010, although we were very excited, we also knew that our population was ten times that of others. Such a total surpass is just a new starting point. Japan is still a distant place. Target. However, 10 years later, our economic aggregate has reached 3.5 times that of Japan, and our population is still 10 times that of Japan. Although there is still a big gap per capita, at the speed of China’s development, I believe there is very little Some people will doubt that it is an achievable goal for us to catch up with Japan in terms of per capita output. Perhaps this goal will only take ten to twenty years. Once we were envious of Japan’s development, but today, Japan is more of an object for us to learn, rather than simply envy. This kind of learning can improve our shortcomings as well as A summary of Japan’s experience and lessons.

Today we are looking at Japan in a calm and objective light, instead of admiring and admiring emotionally. If it is said that Japan’s myths have shattered in the eyes of China in 2010 when the total economic output catches up with Japan, then today we have begun to look at Japan’s shortcomings with a confident eye. This is the change in mentality brought about by the change in strength. Because of our exposure to it, we have become accustomed to this change. Often because of an unexpected event, we suddenly realize that things have changed like this. I am very surprised.

If Japan is only a little Japan in our eyes, a country with a population of only 120 million, then the changes in China’s power relative to the United States and the European Union are even more shocking. According to calculations by research institutions, the US GDP this year is expected to be between 21.5 trillion US dollars and 22 trillion US dollars, which means that China’s total GDP in 2021 will exceed 80% of the US. What kind of existence the United States is, I don’t need to say much. For the vast majority of Chinese people, the United States is synonymous with developed and powerful. In the past few decades, the United States has longed for a better material life for many people. In this land, how many people regard going to the United States to study and work or even settle down as their life ideals. Remember that when we were young, we military fans regarded the US military as the pinnacle of human military power and the United States as the culmination of human technology. We should not blame people for this kind of admiration for foreigners, because the yearning for a better life and the worship of advanced technology is human nature and power. We can only blame ourselves for the huge gap between ourselves and the United States. It is also in the midst of subtle changes. I do not know that everything around us is getting closer to the United States, and the material living conditions we can come into contact with the United States are getting smaller and smaller.

Think about when we were born in the 1980s, we envied the skyscrapers in the United States, that every country in the United States had cars, and we could eat meat all at once, and even Coca-Cola could drink casually. These TV scenes about the United States can make us envious. Not oneself. However, unknowingly, everything we envied before has become a natural life scene for us. Our pursuit of the United States happens every day by our side, but we will not pay special attention to it. So when someone tells us that China’s GDP today has reached 80% of that of the United States, it seems to have happened in an instant, which surprised us. In fact, it is nothing compared to the United States. According to the current exchange rate of the RMB, it has appreciated by more than 8% over the same period last year, which exceeds the average exchange rate appreciation of the euro against the US dollar. The exchange rate gap has further increased the economic growth of China and the EU. The result is that in 2021, research institutes believe that China’s GDP will exceed the EU’s 27 countries as a high probability event. The total population of the 27 EU countries is 450 million people, which is far more than that of the United States. In my opinion, China’s economic aggregate surpasses the EU. It is another thing that I could not imagine before. You must know that in 2001, 20 years ago, China’s GDP can’t even catch up with Italy, let alone the entire EU. In just 20 years, China’s economic aggregate will exceed the total of the EU’s 27 countries. It cannot be described in other words except incredible. However, all of this happened by our side. The country we live in is creating miracles one after another, one after another impossible.

China’s economic aggregate is catching up with Western developed countries, and the relative situation has reversed, which not only brings us Chinese psychological shocks but also impacts Westerners. Westerners have always had a superior arrogance towards China in the past two hundred years. This arrogance is not because of other reasons, but because of the advantages over China since the Industrial Revolution. People crush you in strength and naturally look down on you. It is also human nature. However, the current reversal of power in China and Western countries will have a greater psychological impact on Westerners than the actual impact. Under this impact, Westerners will suddenly surpass their own strength in China and need a process of acceptance. , This process of acceptance often brings risks and even disasters. A person who was far inferior to himself in the past and was bullied and looked down upon suddenly surpassed himself. People’s first reaction is often not a calm acceptance, but a strong feeling of resistance, even hostility.

Today’s China is facing such a situation in Western society. When China was just beginning its economic development, the attitude of Westerners towards China made people feel very friendly. This kind of friendship is to a large extent a kind of supreme compassion. In their eyes, China is backward but mysterious. In the ancient country of the East, there was a story at that time, saying that the first thing Westerners came to China was to see pandas and the Great Wall, and then take them to see the Chinese farmers’ market. Kind of compassion with a sense of superiority. The attitude of the country and the psychological reaction of the people are complementary. At that time, China was far from being a threat to itself in Western developed countries. From a material point of view, people didn’t need to worry about you. From a psychological point of view, they felt right. You are friendly and you can get a sense of superiority and satisfaction, so at that time, many people in Western society treated China far less maliciously than they are today.

However, today the power comparison between China and the West has undergone a fundamental reversal. At this time, from the national level to the social level, the West’s attitude towards China will definitely change accordingly. As a result, we have all seen that in recent years, Western countries and public opinion in Western society have become less friendly towards China, and various malicious smears have become more and more frequent. As we said before, after the Second World War, no country’s economic aggregate could stabilize more than 70% of that of the United States. Japan once achieved it, but it was short-lived and it was quickly beaten down by the Americans using both hard and soft means. . However, after last year’s economic aggregate exceeded that of the U.S. by 70%, China is likely to exceed 80% of the U.S. in total. It is so close to the U.S. in aggregate, and it is catching up with such strong momentum. This is the first time that the U.S. and the West are catching up. meet.

Therefore, in recent years, the United States has shown a sense of irrational hysteria towards China, which is a kind of panic in the face of a powerful opponent that has never appeared. Trump’s irrational remarks can be universally supported in American society. In many European countries, voices that regard China as a threat have the upper hand. It has to be said that Western society is currently accepting the idea of ​​a strong China. Transformation is now at the most difficult and dangerous stage of this transformation process. The will of the country is the projection of public opinion in the domestic society, and domestic public opinion is in turn guided by the relationship between nations. In the present major changes unseen in a century, the Western society’s attitude towards China may have unexpected emergencies. The situation, at this time, how-to guide the public opinion of the Western society to rationally view the rise of China, especially the reversal of the powerful contrast between the West and China, is related to the peace and stability of the world, and it is also related to the future of mankind. This is the need for all countries in the world to think and think seriously. Difficult subjects to deal with. Especially in Western countries, China’s great rejuvenation is an unstoppable historical trend. Learning to face it rationally and achieving win-win cooperation is a wise move.