Iran that is hard to deal with

Translated from the Headlines (Toutiao 头条新闻)

Author: Li Jianqiu’s world(李建秋的世界)

“Foreign Affairs” is already introspecting and withdrawing all its forces to East Asia. Is it repeating the mistakes of the past? It was to fight Afghanistan and Iraq, ignoring the rise of China, which led to the current situation. Will the gathering of power lead to the rise of other places? The rise of China is already in turmoil. If things go wrong elsewhere, will the Americans return to North America?

The United States is a global empire, and the U.S. dollar circulates all over the world. Unlike the United States, China can concentrate its power in East Asia. As for Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, you don’t even look at it. The United States can’t, just In order to maintain the hegemony of the US dollar, the Middle East is a land of energy, and it is impossible to lose the Middle East.

Iran’s newly elected President Leahy has brought great trouble to the United States. In the past, Biden’s calculations were: the United States stepped back, and as long as Iran still accepts the Iran nuclear agreement, then the United States will lift its sanctions on Iran, and everyone should take everything else. Hasn’t it happened, okay?

Leahy said: Not good.

Leahy believes that the framework of the original Iran nuclear agreement is asymmetric because the framework has very clear technical standards for Iran’s obligations and can be verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency, but there is no law that stipulates that Iran can benefit from the lifting of sanctions.

And once Iran withdraws from the nuclear agreement, Iran will be punished, but if the United States withdraws from the nuclear agreement, the United States will do nothing. Therefore, Leahy believes that if Iran resumes the nuclear agreement, it will lack leverage. Iran needs to reduce its nuclear program according to the agreement, ship 98% of its enriched uranium abroad, and accept the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Moreover, it is not certain whether the sanctions will be lifted permanently. International companies and financial institutions are unwilling to do business in Iran. In fact, when Rouhani signed this agreement, the hardliners in Iran had been worried about this. As a result, after Chuanbao came to power, The most worrying thing finally happened, not only did it happen, but also killed General Soleimani.

This is tantamount to a great embarrassment to moderates like Rouhani. It is only natural for a hardliner like Leahy to come to power. Israel and the United States have engaged in some assassinations in the hope of preventing Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. In fact, Iran is far away from possessing nuclear weapons. There is only one piece of paper left. According to foreign media reports, Iran can now build nuclear weapons, but Iran currently uses this “made” as a bargaining chip.

The US special envoy for Iran, Robert Marley, stated that if Iran cooperates to restore the agreement, the US is willing to “swiftly lift all sanctions that do not comply with the Joint Action Plan.” The problem is that Iran believes that it is easy to lift at present, but who can guarantee that it will not re-sanctions?

Leahy’s team recently strengthened economic ties with China, Russia, and other neighboring countries to hedge against the impact of sanctions. As South Korea complied with US sanctions and seized Iran’s 7 billion U.S. dollars, Khamenei issued an order to ban imports of South Korean household products. Electrical appliances.

Iranian domestic entrepreneurs took the opportunity to improve the quality of their products and mass-produced household appliances to replace foreign ones. They were also afraid that Khamenei would lift the sanctions.

In order to influence the surrounding area, Iran has already shipped several batches of petroleum products through Syria, and then distributed them through Hezbollah, and proposed to build two power plants in Lebanon within 18 months. Lebanon is now trapped by a lack of electricity and Met with Bashar al-Assad to discuss economic reconstruction.

At present, some people in the United States have been clamoring to adopt “Plan B”, on the one hand, to strengthen economic sanctions. Once Iran completely refuses to abide by the nuclear agreement, the United States will use force.

This is the problem: all normal American politicians know that Iran is not Iraq. Iran has a population of more than 80 million, and its area is four times that of Iraq. It is also a mountainous region. Moreover, China and Russia really cannot ask for it, as long as the U.S. forces enter. There are 10,000 ways to clean up the U.S. military, which is definitely a worse outcome than the Vietnam War.

However, Israel is pressing very tight and resolutely not allowing Iran to possess nuclear weapons. Israel itself does not have enough power to attack Iran. The United States must cooperate. So the question is: once Iran does start nuclear weapons, what should it do?

Fighting is impossible, and sanctions are invalid.

There is only one way left: to sign a new Iran nuclear agreement and to leave terms restricting the United States.

The question is: Does Biden dare to sign?

If Biden dares to sign, the domestic hawks will definitely tear him up.

And once it was signed, it sent a signal to the outside world: the moderate Rouhani and the Americans signed the Iran nuclear agreement, and the United States turned over, and the hardliner Lacey came to power to re-sign the Iran nuclear agreement. Instead, the United States gave in. What does this mean?

It means that you should be tough on the United States.

So it can’t be signed, what should I do.

There is also a Russian issue. Although the Taiwan Strait issue is now raging in the media, there is a reason for Brinken’s so weak statement: If Russia also takes action against Ukraine, what will it do?

Or even worse, if China, Russia, and Iran do it at the same time, what should we do?

The EU has problems with self-insurance.

In addition, Ukraine has begun to change vaguely. There has been a wave of the resignation of high-ranking Ukrainian officials. The resignation of First Deputy Prime Minister Lyubchenko and the resignation of Defense Minister Taran confirm that Russia has once again assembled its military and weapons on the borders of Russia and Ukraine.

The satellite captured photos of Russian troops stationed in Yelnya, Smolensk Oblast, Russia. The area is not far from the Belarusian border. In addition, not far from the northern border of Ukraine, the equipment of the Russian Fourth Armored Division-t-80u Tanks and self-propelled artillery, and around Bryansk and Kursk, you can see the troops of the First Guards Tank Group.

In the Middle East, there is nothing that can be beaten except Turkey and Israel. Egypt was still able to fight in the past, but now Egypt’s domestic economy is extremely distressed, and the big pie is almost unavailable.

Although Turkey is a so-called NATO ally, under Erdogan’s swelling over the past few years, whether he has always talked to the United States, and the relationship between Turkey and Israel is not very good.

The worst-case scenario is Israel VS Turkey + Iran. How will this battle be fought? You lose if you don’t fight.

The best situation is to oust Erdogan first and change to a pro-American president. It is best to oust Iran’s Leahy and change to a pro-American president. Of course, it is very difficult, but at least another Rouhani must go up. Row.

But it is unrealistic to change Leahy. Leahy has just come to power and it is still early before the end of his term. Erdogan can theoretically be re-elected until 2029. Even if it is the next general election, he will have to wait until 2023, which is 2 years away.

Even if you want to do things in Iran and Turkey, it is too late.

There is also a hidden problem: the substitution of Chinese products, it cannot be said that both sides are fighting, and they are still relying on the products of the enemy country. This is too funny.

The problem is that if you don’t rely on it, you must find a substitute immediately. Where is the substitute?

If it is Southeast Asia, it is no different from no replacement. Southeast Asian countries are still extremely dependent on China’s upstream supply, and Southeast Asia is too close to China.

India is a good option, maybe it will be possible in the next ten years, but not now. And India is also a thorn. The last time Amazon filed a lawsuit with India’s richest man Ambani, it was clear that the agreement between the two parties determined the ruling in Singapore. After Singapore’s ruling was issued, Ambani simply did not enforce it. Amazon had nothing to do.

Moreover, India itself has great ambitions. If India is really helped, who can guarantee that this is not the next China?

It was also in this extremely distressing situation that the Peterson Institute for International Economics researched a completely unreliable alternative: Mexico

American brains: Bringing the supply chain to Mexico

Now let’s look back at why we brought the supply chain back to Mexico, otherwise?

During this period of time, prices in the United States have soared. On November 1, Yellen finally let go. In an interview with Reuters, Yellen said that he might consider eventually reducing some tariffs in a “reciprocal way.”

In fact, the core problem is: If the United States still holds the strength of the year, for example, nearly 50% of the economy, and the ability to fight two wars at the same time, then the United States really doesn’t matter. The problem is that it now accounts for 24% of the world’s economy. He has only 24% of the bargaining chips, but 100% control of the global economy is an imbalance in itself.

And these are only three countries. Once more countries wake up, the United States is not as strong as they thought, and the United States will be more troublesome by then.