Powell died of the new crown and infected so many people. Why has the United States not collapsed?

Translated from the Headlines (Toutiao 头条新闻)

Author: Jiu Bian Pro

This topic was accidentally seen while wandering in the past few days, especially the famous “washing whistleblower” Powell died in the past two days, and many people wonder if the United States will not recover. In fact, just think about it. , India has not collapsed, what can happen to the United States.

However, in the past two years of the outbreak, too many people have read countless bad news in the United States and feel that they have to be hurt. Why doesn’t it seem to have a big impact? Can the United States really survive crisis after crisis by printing money continuously? Let’s talk about this topic today.

1 What kind of country is the United States?

China has a big misunderstanding of the United States, which is to use many of our own concepts to figure out the country on the other side of the ocean. In fact, the underlying structure of many things is not the same, so it is difficult to understand.

For example, the most basic one. The United States has been an alliance of colonies from the beginning. It is a bit like our ancient tribal alliance, scattered on the east coast. The relationship between the colonies is not very good, and the concepts are different.

People from the colonies arrived in the Americas for different reasons. Some people owed a small amount of money and couldn’t pay for them. They came to America as slaves to pay off their debts (indentured slaves). Another part is that they can’t beat others in religious wars and have to flee. Often Catholics in Europe and the United Kingdom have the upper hand, and a bunch of Protestant people will go to America. In a few years, Protestant people have had the upper hand. The evil that the Catholics had done a few years ago was liquidated, and a bunch of Catholics was forced to leave. In addition, there were all kinds of people who couldn’t get along in Europe. The Irish famine was full of bones. A bunch of Irish people went to America; Jews were persecuted, and a bunch of Jews also went to America.

When these people arrived in the Americas, they didn’t think they belonged to the same country. They fought each other, staying in the camps and farming with guns. The Americans were a group of armed peasants for a long time, It was not until the end of the civil war that they began to engage in the industry.

Due to the hostility between each other, there are more hostile Indians around the colonies, and the colonies rarely help each other in disasters, and the colonies tend to do their best to protect themselves.

The fear stems from the lack of firepower, so inside the colony, children are required to practice shooting when they are not as high as their guns. The Americans have been a “country under the barrel” from the beginning. Now everyone understands why the United States can’t ban guns at all. , So many people die every year, and their determination to hold guns cannot be shaken.

The concepts of guns, communities and security in the United States were established before the United States, even more than a hundred years earlier. In other words, before the United States, these concepts were already written dead in the genes of American society. In the same way, loan sharking and litigation are also much earlier than in the United States. The legal and financial system was established earlier than the US government. The US government has always been less concerned about reforming society, so the United States is the same as India. , There are hundreds of years old garbage piled up there, and they don’t think there is any problem.

But unlike India, the United States has established a complex mechanism to protect private property. When the United States was first established, a group of representatives of the Constituent Assembly quarreled like that. A key issue was “some bastards use dirty methods.” Should the money received be protected?”, or, “Is the government owed the bastard money yet?”, because at that time the United States issued a lot of debts for the war, and these debts were very low by a few wealthy people. The price is in hand, and if the government pays back the money, these people will be rich immediately. The problem is that these people are all bastards who make a fortune in the country. When the country needs money, they hid away. They heard that the government had to pay back the money and bought bonds at low prices (At that time, the information was asymmetrical, and many people thought that the country would not pay back the money, so they sold the bonds as tissues).

The result of the final resolution is that “as long as the bastard’s private property is not illegal, the government will still recognize that the money owed by the government will continue to be paid.”

So many people are mistaken about the meaning of the Constituent Assembly. There are two real meanings:

One is that private property will continue to be protected, and the United States has been an extremely friendly country to the rich from the beginning. This laid the groundwork for the powerful and enterprising spirit of the Americans later. As long as you get the money, it is your own. Spontaneously encourage greed, encourage unscrupulous means, first raise Gu internally, and then the Gu King will plunder others.

The second is that the U.S. government must repay its debts. This is also the cornerstone of the U.S. Treasury debt system. The U.S. dollar later became the world currency for many reasons. However, this constitutional discussion is undoubtedly the cornerstone. The U.S. dollar is secured by U.S. debt, and if the U.S. debt does not default, the U.S. dollar can always dominate.

After the founding of the United States, the United States continued to maintain the previous model of small groups and communities with a high degree of autonomy and finally assembled into a country. At that time, the area was very large and there were sparsely populated areas. The distance between each cluster was so great that the government could not manage it.

For a long time, the United States managed itself within the community, elected a responsible person within the community, and the community also had its own armed forces. Later, these armed forces gradually evolved into the current police. If you notice, you will find that the appearance of police officers in different parts of the United States is very different, and this is what they have continued in history.

Even if the community officials did not want to control it, everyone let the underworld control. Similar to the case in “The Godfather”, the respected underworld tycoons presided over justice for everyone. At first glance, it seems strange, but after thinking about it, I think it’s quite normal. When the colony encounters dangers, it is also necessary to solve them by themselves. For example, if the Indians come and the Mexicans come, if you wait for the government to save them, it may not be possible to collect the whole body, so all men, women, young and old who can hang guns have to go together.

Until now, the United States still encourages the people to defend themselves with guns, and don’t wait for the police, and even if the police arrive, he has the right to judge the situation. If he feels that he is too weak to beat the robbers, he can drive away.

Therefore, they have a perverted obsession with guns. The gun is the life of the whole family, the gun is the safety itself, and their own affairs are solved by themselves. It is better to wait for the government than to wait for God. After the Civil War, there was a saying, “Lincoln gave all slaves freedom, and Colt made these slaves equal.” What is Colt? This is the one below. This gun was invented by a man named Colt. :

Putting these logics together, you can almost understand their nationality (even if they have a nationality).

First of all, the United States has been a highly polarized country since its founding. It has always been a winner-takes-all because it encourages risk-taking and enterprising. Huge wealth is really as rich as a country, and ordinary people can only figure it out by themselves.

However, the United States is very lucky, and it has always been dividends. In the early years, there was a land dividend and such a large North American continent. Let the United States make a noise. Later, there were two world wars, and the country was extremely friendly to the rich. , The rich people all over the world are running to the United States, and ordinary people can also get the light. After all, the rich also need someone to take care of their nursing homes. Everyone can understand the price of babysitters for the families of the rich in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, and graduate from prestigious schools. The students are almost the same, and some graduates from prestigious schools simply went to work as babysitters.

There was a period of time in American history. When Roosevelt came to Reagan, there were high taxes and high welfare. But in those years, the government spent too much, owed a large amount of money, and stagflation. So Reagan began to cut welfare significantly and slowly developed into what we are now we see like it.

Secondly, their government is already under control. Grassroots autonomy appeared earlier than the government. The people take care of themselves. If something goes wrong, it is your own problem.

If an analogy is forced, the relationship between the people and the government in some countries is like the relationship between the child and the parent. Parents have to control what happens to the child. But the relationship between the U.S. government and the common people is a bit like the relationship between children and their parents after graduation. Parents seldom force their children to do something, and if the children are unlucky, they will not feel that it is the problem of their parents.

After understanding these, looking at this epidemic, there is nothing to understand.

2 U.S. under the epidemic

When I went to the United States for the first time, I found that if you want to, you can use your mobile phone lens to capture two countries in this country.

The first is the urban area of ​​Jumaitai, where the poor and the homeless stay in a mess, trash is flying all over the sky, and even the windows of McDonald’s are equipped with bulletproof glass and barbed wire. It is a doomsday scene.

But if you go out of the city and pass by a wealthy area, the villa-style houses stretch to the horizon, with green trees and clean roads, it feels like you have just arrived in a developed country.

From the perspective of the common people, too many people are stupid to the point of mentally retarded, and they can’t even figure out the addition of two digits. Many people say that a calculator is enough, but in reality, if two digits are added and subtracted, they can’t figure it out. , Thinking about more complex problems will be very painful, people tend to do something simple in mind, and the mind becomes simpler and simpler over time.

But as software practitioners, we are also very clear that similar to Oracle (database), Matlab (mathematics software), Synopsys (chip design), CAD (drawing), this complex and sophisticated software are basically controlled by the United States, and China’s top-notch software, For the time being, the company is unable to make it out, and there is no market space to make it out. This software has been integrated into our lives. Now almost everyone who uses a mobile phone has to use this software indirectly every day.

In other words, the upper limit of this country is very high, and the lower limit is very low.

Under the careful understanding, the United States is a country that is similar to the natural world. The winner takes all and extremely rewards the strong. After seeing the news in the past two days, it is said that Musk’s worth has surpassed the sum of Bill Gates and Buffett. If His wealth is ranked among the top 50 countries in the world, a country that is truly wealthy. If you are powerful enough and creative enough, they can mobilize vast resources for you to use, you can do more and achieve more.

In the words of an economist, the United States has led the world for more than two hundred years, of which more than one hundred years have led the world. It is not all Americans, but extremely dependent on a small group of very creative and breakthrough Americans who founded After the US national debt system, these people developed atomic bombs and computers and created new fields one after another. Others followed these people and drank the soup.

After understanding this logic, we can understand the real advantages of Americans. Its system is extremely friendly to the small group of people in the head. They made mistakes and gave them the opportunity for fault tolerance (their bankruptcy system), and they have achieved success. Give unimaginable rewards. In this case, the world’s top talents will naturally gather to them.

These people in the head have always been the key core competitiveness of the United States. They were almost unaffected by this epidemic. Musk’s rockets have been released continuously, and the iteration of electric vehicles is much faster than that of rockets. Apple’s product releases are also basically. Did not fall. Even if the United States has more casualties and will have an impact, it will not be too traumatic. Moreover, the elderly people who died in this epidemic are mainly elderly, so it is even more uncomfortable.

The rest of the people, with their brains amused, have the consciousness of taking care of themselves. They don’t usually trust the government and don’t count on the government when they encounter trouble.

Putting these together, we can find that their ordinary people have very low demands on the government, and there is a strong locomotive dragged by them, and the embarrassment is constant, but they seem to be mixed and moist.

3 How long can the U.S. dollar hegemony last?

Many people in China are still too anxious about the collapse of the U.S. dollar. They feel that the abuse of currency should be right in front of them. Then they found that it has been so long and still hasn’t collapsed, so they collapsed a bit.

In fact, when you think about it, you’ll know that the dollar is so strong, it’s not just a continuation of the past two hundred years. The various corruptions of the year are essentially consuming the credit of the past. The United States today cannot be compared to 20 or 30 years ago, but there is still a long slope to go.

Everyone understands why the U.S. dollar is so strong. It is generally said that the U.S. Navy’s military hegemony is invincible in the world, so the U.S. dollar’s ​​hegemony is relatively strong.

In fact, this is only a small part. The dollar itself is a kind of currency. A piece of paper can buy things because it integrates credit. The dollar is so strong now that it has a lot to do with its credit.

Many people don’t understand the matter of credit, thinking that a big fist is a strong credit. In fact, it is not. The Ming government used a butcher knife to force the people to use treasure money. Everyone still used that thing as toilet paper. There is no army behind the gold that is forced to use it, but everyone likes gold, and if there is a little turmoil, it will be used. Money speaks for itself, but it’s a trajectory.

Think about it now, everyone, even Saddam, the family of the presidents of the Soviet member states, and the head of the Afghan government that has recently fallen, all have a lot of dollars in their hands, that is, you are an enemy of the United States, but you still hold the U.S. currency first. , How did this happen?

In fact, if you know that you have dollars in your hand, you can spend them. That puts the problem forward. Why does everyone believe that dollars can be spent?

Because people living on earth now have a common sense in their lifetime: you can spend your dollars if you have dollars. Not only that, you can go to the U.S. if you have U.S. dollars, and you can leave at any time if you are not satisfied. Have you seen “Latent”, where the government officials are all engaged in the US dollar? You know, the US dollar was not linked to gold at that time, and everyone didn’t care about the gold standard, everyone only cared about whether it could be spent.

So where does everyone’s confidence come from?

In fact, the root cause is that when Hamilton was enacting the constitution, they said that the United States would have to pay its debts no matter what, whether it was owed to others or to its own people, everyone was accustomed to this determination to pay back the debts. This is a bit like the kind of underworld with good credit, killing people, trafficking in drugs, and engaging in pornography, but the credit is indeed very good, debts must be paid back, and everyone is willing to deal with him.

What is the national debt?

That is, the US government signed an IOU saying that this IOU has an interest. Whoever wants to buy it, if you want, you can buy it with the US dollars in your hand, which is equivalent to lent the money to the US government. When the United States was first founded, the government owed a lot of money, and many people didn’t want to pay it back, but Hamilton insisted on paying it back. He even thought that it is a good thing to owe money, and people around you are willing to lend it to you. He even told everyone that British people have good credit and debts must be repaid. In the end, they fought against Holland, France, Spain, and Russia. People from those countries bought British government bonds and provided them with artillery shells.

In fact, U.S. Treasury currently holds 6.77 trillion U.S. Treasury bonds. Foreign capital is China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries. These overseas holders add up to 26%. U.S. domestic investors hold 19.23 trillion U.S. Treasuries, accounting for approximately 73.9% of the total debt, that is, the vast majority of U.S. debt is held by ordinary Americans. If you want to default, you must first cheat yourself.

Don’t they know that the U.S. dollar is getting more and more rubbish? Of course, I know, it’s just a comparison of junk. If you hold Indian currency, one day the Indian government suddenly said that the currency did not work well before, so quickly change to a new one. After all, they just did this.

You hold Russian currency, and Russia will not be on national debt someday (it defaulted once in 1998, and the long-term capital made by a group of Nobel Prize winners in economics went bankrupt in that crisis), and the ruble in your hand will follow. A round of sharp devaluation. After the depreciation of the dollar, you can still exchange it for anything you want at any time, which is basically impossible in other currencies.

So let’s just say, expect the dollar’s ​​hegemony to completely collapse, and we have to wait for a currency that everyone agrees to replace it, and this currency itself has good credit, not only good credit, but this good state will last for many years. Slowly take root in everyone’s hearts. When more and more people are willing to accept this currency, this new currency will gradually equalize with the US dollar. If there is no decisive war or something, even if there is a tie, it will take many years to surpass it.

In the First World War, the United States’ economy was already much stronger than the United Kingdom’s, but the U.S. dollar was still incomparable with the British pound. Until the end of World War II, the United States had surpassed entire Europe, but it still needed gold as a tiger skin. Having completely won the hegemony of the U.S. dollar, we can see how difficult it is to replace currency hegemony, but once a replacement occurs, it can also be tossed for many years.

China’s current currency strength still feels a bit different from the United States around 1900. After all, the United States was already the world’s largest economy in 1894. So don’t worry, you need to take your time. Every generation has tasks for one generation. Not surprisingly, our generation can still only witness the continuous erosion of the dollar’s status. It is estimated that it is difficult to see it completely drained.

As long as it is not dumped, it can indeed continue to loot the world. It is like someone in the village digs a well and everyone is using the well. Later, the person who digs the well degenerates into a bully and sits at the well every day to collect management fees. , But other people tried to dig the well too hard. Some people are already drilling again, but the water hasn’t come out yet, or if it comes out a little, the water quality is not as good as that of the bully. Everyone still gives priority to the bully.

But if you keep looting, you are also corrupting your own credit, but the time it takes to accumulate credit is too long, and it will take a few years to completely lose it.

4 What’s the inspiration for us

In the past few decades, China and the United States have never had a competitive relationship, so for a while, Americans called this relationship “G2” very naively. The United States transfers domestic backward and low-end production capacity to China to earn excess profits. They engage in high-end industry and technology research and development and absorb top talents from China by the way. There is no high-end industry in China, and high wages cannot be offered. Outstanding talents will naturally vote to leave China with their feet.

To a certain extent, there have been some years of this route. Before 2010, what did the students of China’s top schools say?

“Not abroad, just on the way abroad.”

Although talents are still flowing out, the momentum has improved. The main reason is that China’s internal market has been formed, which can set high prices for top talents, and no longer sell tea eggs as before. high. In that case, except for a few people who have feelings of home and country, most of them have left to live. Now the income gap of top talents is narrowing, and they can continue to return to China in the future. Our country has always been talking about dedication to top talents and not about money. Why does HW research and develop decent points, mainly because it is willing to give money, not much to say, you can search by yourself, the income of head scientific research personnel is scary, no Lower than its European and American counterparts.

However, China is still far from the US’s ability to attract wealthy people from all over the world to move in. If this situation does not occur for a day, the Chinese currency cannot be compared with the US. The epidemic has become like that. People like Pan Paopao are still running to the United States. This is in itself a blood transfusion to the United States. The U.S. economy has always had a very important increase, which is the continuous influx of wealthy people all over the world.

If nothing else happens, the United States will continue to make a fool of itself, because the peak should have passed. They are now plagued by debts, just like the situation in the second half of all empires, but if they want to see them completely collapsed, they are expected to have to. Many many years.

It is still too early to say that China has surpassed the United States. Ren Zhengfei has a saying, saying that the United States is treating us badly now, but we must continue to open up and continue to learn from the United States.

In fact, everyone knows that such a great achievement in the United States is not accidental, and it has led to two technological revolutions one after another. They also developed almost all revolutionary technologies after the war. It has its own strengths and a set of behaviors. The effective plan and route are now suppressing us, because we are learning from them to do things, and they find that we are learning very right, all panicked and anxious to split. Why is Huawei being so severely sanctioned by the United States? Because Huawei’s internal management process was designed and installed by IBM, and now China is learning from the United States the most attractive company is Huawei.

Next, we still have to continue to learn their remaining strengths, without arrogance or rashness. Before the epidemic, I often ran back and forth between China and the United States. I knew a lot about some things. There are so many things we need to learn. When making funny shows for their bottom losers, they should also think about what their head company is up to. Recognizing distance is the key to progress.

In the past, the gap was not obvious because we mainly accepted the technology transfer from the West, and we didn’t need much research and development. In the past few years, we have started to touch the technological barrier. That is to say, some things in the West are reluctant to transfer, and we have discovered how difficult this road is. However, the harder it is, the more difficult it is to do. The harder things are worthwhile. If India and Vietnam can do things, it doesn’t make much sense. It’s just to increase employment. Now the difficult period is just a period of deep cultivation, and low-end products can’t be sold. Therefore, it is more necessary to consider the research and development of higher-level products, so that scientific researchers have value and status, and can generate positive feedback and sustained development momentum.

No matter what it is, I will continue to cross the river with the bald eagle until he is completely bald.