The disintegration of the superpower must be in a slump? This is the case in the UK, why is it also the case in Russia

Translated from the Headlines (Toutiao 头条新闻)

Author: A Dou is not stupid(阿斗不傻)

Introduction:

In 1982, the United Kingdom used an expedition to the Falklands to shortly declare the existence of the British Empire.

But since then, the United Kingdom has gone from bad to worse. Everyone has gone from a big country that dominates the world to a regional power. There is no trace of the superpower’s style, and it also shows people in a flattering posture. It is not embarrassing.

Compared to the United Kingdom, the former superpower, the Soviet Union, is in no better situation!

Russia is still in the world today, its military strength is still strong, but its economic strength is difficult to regain, and the population problem is even more difficult to return.

Will this be the case after the disintegration of the superpower? What happened to them is worth studying!

In my opinion, all of this is nothing more than one factor in the final analysis, which is the economy.

The economic foundation determines the superstructure. A big country that has lost the crown, no matter what its background, when it loses its economic blessings, it will inevitably fail to recover in the end.

The sinking of Britain was a gradual process. In 1880, the United States surpassed Britain to become the largest manufacturing country, and then Germany surpassed Britain to become the second-largest manufacturing country. The real economy that maintained British hegemony disappeared, and Britain turned to rely on it. Financial hegemony.

However, financial hegemony is not reliable compared to the manufacturing hegemony supported by the real economy.

After two successive German challenges and world wars, Britain lost its financial hegemony and its ability to formulate international rules. It has sunk step by step to its present state.

This is the problem of Britain, so what about the problem of Russia?

Here, I want to change the angle and start talking about all this from one person.

(Russian scenery)

One: The grand plan of the son of a reporter from Pravda.

Yegor Gydar!

A character that Chinese people rarely understand today, but if you say another thing, you might think of something.

That is shock therapy!

This radical economic reform that made Russia hard to return was carried out under his auspices.

Although Yegor Gydar has a bad reputation in Russia, his family is a well-known family of writers in the Soviet Union.

His grandfather Petrovich Gaidar’s book “The Story of Timur” was once all the rage in China.

My father bought this book back then. His father was Timur Gaidar, a military reporter from the Soviet “Pravda”. This person is not simple. He participated in the Cuban battle against the American invasion of the Bay of Pigs in the early years. Friend of El Castro.

(I have read this book)

This kind of family inheritance makes Yegor Gaidar, not a low starting point!

The influence of the scholarly family, as well as the words and deeds of the reporter’s father, made Yegor Gaidar more radical thinking. He complained about the rigid Soviet political and economic system for a long time. He was not told about the Soviet model and became a believer in the Western economic model.

This is also the reason why he studied economics at university and hoped to use his abilities and talents to change the status quo of the country.

The original intention is indeed very good, but if you use the wrong direction and still occupy a high position, it is a disaster for the country.

Who would have thought that Yegor Gydar took up both of these points?

Before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Gaidar was trusted and reused by Yeltsin.

After the establishment of Russia, at the age of 35, he became the first deputy prime minister and minister of finance of the Russian Federation. It is said that in 1992, Yeltsin even wanted to appoint him as prime minister, but was rejected by the State Duma.

With Yeltsin’s trust and a suitable position, don’t do anything, don’t you fail years of hard work?

Of course, the opportunity must be seized. So, with Yeltsin’s support, he became the leader of follow-up shock therapy in Russia.

(Be cautious in treating illness)

Two: American believers.

In the 1980s, Bolivia, a South American country, experienced an unprecedented economic crisis and fell into the predicament of the people’s livelihood.

The Bolivian government panicked, so it turned its attention to the American academic community for help.

Under the recommendation of the United States, an economist named Jeffrey Sachs became an economic adviser to the Bolivian government.

When did Bolivia state that the government budget deficit in 1985 was as high as 485.9 trillion pesos, accounting for one-third of GDP, the inflation rate was as high as 24,000%, the external debt was as large as 5 billion U.S. dollars, and the interest payable was as high as 1 billion U.S. dollars? National export revenue.

It seems that there is no way to increase income and reduce expenditure. The living standards of residents have plummeted by 30%, and the country is on the verge of collapse.

(Bolivia Today)

Looking at all this, Jeffrey Sachs, who is consciously versed in the principles of economics, upholds the method of being a dead horse, and boldly put forward a series of economic programs and policies.

In short, this program and policy can be divided into two parts.

The first part: implement austerity financial and fiscal policies, cut expenditures by reducing government spending or even abolishing subsidies, liberalizing commodity prices, implementing trade liberalization, achieve exchange rate stability through currency devaluation, and simultaneously reforming the administrative and taxation systems.

The previous ones seem to be normal, but the real killer moves are in the back.

Part 2: Targeting some public sectors and state-owned enterprises for privatization and privatization, turning them into private enterprises, and then rescheduling their debts to accept foreign aid.

This whole set of economic reform programs is called “shock therapy” by economic circles because of its huge impact and huge social impact, which can even cause the economy to enter a state of shock.

Generally speaking, such a radical plan is not highly accepted, but the Bolivian economy is like that. The Bolivian government bravely accepted this prescription.

Whoever thought that strong medicine would have miraculous effects, just one week after the implementation of the policy, inflation was curbed and prices stabilized!

From 1986 to 1987, Bolivia’s inflation rate was only between 10% and 15%. Although there were repeated fluctuations in the following years, the fluctuations were not large.

After several years of reforms, the Bolivian economy has begun to stabilize and show the momentum of growth.

Jeffrey Sachs was also known as the “golden boy of international finance” because of this incident. Shock therapy, under the deliberate propaganda of the West, became a panacea for saving the economy.

(Jeffrey Sachs)

All these lessons are not far away, and the Russians, especially Yegor Gaidar, who is in charge of the economy, can see clearly.

After gaining power, Yegor Gaidar immediately invited Jeffrey Sachs to let him tailor a prescription for Russia’s economic reform.

Prescriptions and prescriptions, according to the understanding of the Chinese people, must prescribe the right medicine. Whoever says that one party cures all diseases is either stupid or bad.

I don’t know whether Jeffrey Sachs is stupid or bad, but he really wants to use one party to cure all diseases.

Regardless of the huge difference in the size of the Bolivian and Russian economies, the economic composition is completely different. What surprised us more was the blind obedience and trust of Yeltsin and Gaidar in this economist.

Geoffrey Sachs used the same tricks in Russia as in Bolivia.

First of all: open up prices, remove income restrictions, and let the market trade freely!

Starting from January 2, 1992, Russia decided to open up prices and no longer control price levels. 90% of the price of consumer goods and 80% of the means of production began to be freely priced. In addition, Russia has also increased the salaries of civil servants and retirees. Russia has entered the free market stage in one fell swoop

Second: Practicing cost-cutting policies and reducing government expenditures. This policy means to tighten fiscal and monetary policies and cancel previous preferential subsidies for the industry.

(Russia at the beginning of independence)

Finally: the implementation of large-scale privatization, the government carried out privatization reforms of state-owned enterprises and related departments, and issued 150 million securities worth 1.5 trillion rubles by issuing privatized securities to the whole people, so that almost every Russian Became a shareholder of state-owned enterprises and departments.

After these three measures, the market consumption was prosperous for a while.

Countless people have increased their wages, and even took privatized securities belonging to the state, and suddenly became bullish. When they had money, their waists became a lot harder, and they began to buy and buy!

In the early days of price liberalization, goods were everywhere on the shelves, and the reforms seemed to have brought benefits.

But whoever thought, all this is just a flash in the pan!

Yegor Gaidar and Russia, who admired American economists, subsequently paid the price for this gullibility.

(Believe the duo)

Three: The plan cannot keep up with the changes.

The dazzling array of products on the shelves lasted only three months, and then they began to appear empty again.

Why is it so? The answer is that the Soviet Union used to be a planned economy. What is produced every year and how much output is planned.

Inventory is just that much. Let the market liberalize, and then sell all of them. It is planned for one year and sold out in three months. Is there anything else going on in the future?

The industrial production sector could not support such profligate consumption, and the lack of goods immediately revealed Russia’s true identity.

By April 1992, Russia, which had undergone several months of reforms, ushered in hyper-inflation, and prices had risen 65 times compared with the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991.

The Russian government, who realized it later, looked at it, and it didn’t work!

So they forced state-owned stores to limit their prices and hoped to control inflation, but these state-owned stores were free for months and became ambitious.

You let me sell at a price limit, isn’t that a loss? They simply close their doors and send the goods to the black market to make quick money.

The price increase of daily necessities is bound to trigger inflation and currency devaluation.

The daily necessities and raw materials that have opened their price system have ushered in a general rise in the follow-up, and the prices of industrial raw materials and fuels have also soared.

In June 1992, the prices of industrial products increased by 14 times compared with the pre-reform period. The high prices were unbearable for production enterprises, and the market supply also shrank further. In the consumer market, there are no commodities, production plants, and raw materials soaring, and major problems are encountered at both ends of supply and demand.

The trade cycle under the free market is at a dead end.

The Russian economy is in a deep quagmire, but this is not over yet, because of currency tightening and privatizing Russia has not yet said.

(What happened to the Russians)

Four: Currency tightening and privatization.

The currency tightening in shock therapy is for the government to increase revenue and reduce expenditure, increase revenue and reduce expenditure. Of course, the purpose is good, but under bad economic conditions, it has no effect.

There is no other reason: the consumer market has shrunk, production has stagnated, the number of unemployed people has soared, no one produces, no one consumes, and no one works.

After the three people have no one, where will the government collect taxes?

Not only is there no place to collect taxes, but also additional expenses!

Don’t you want money for unemployment relief? Don’t you need money for pension expenses? Boost the economy and ask for money for policies, right?

What if I don’t have money? Helpless Russia can only choose to print money because this method is the only choice.

In 1992, Russia issued an additional 18 trillion rubles of currency, which was several times more than the sum of the previous years. Of course, the inflation of government printing money has returned, and the economic situation is seeing worse and worse.

(There is a kind of helplessness called queuing shopping)

However, this is not over yet, because the deadliest privatization is coming.

Russia’s privatization reform should be one of the weirdest economic operations in the world.

The magic of this plan is that after simply monetizing all state-owned assets, in an almost random way, they converted them into securities marked with rubles and sent them to every Russian people.

No matter how old or young, everyone has a share regardless of age.

Overnight, everyone in Russia became shareholders after the privatization of Russian state-owned enterprises.

A piece of paper makes the enterprise the owner, and what is even more unimaginable is that this piece of paper does not hold its value?

This is the crux of the problem.

A stable economy cannot guarantee the preservation rate of currency or even securities, let alone the Soviet Union that has just experienced a split.

In 1991, the Soviet Union was still there. When the family was separated, the Russians settled the accounts. According to one-third of the privatization, the value of all state-owned assets in the country was 1.5 trillion rubles or 10,000 rubles per person. Privatized securities.

(Privatized securities of the year)

But when the privatization plan started in October 1992, the ruble had experienced a substantial depreciation. Apart from the symbolic meaning behind it, this money was not as good as waste paper!

At this time, countless people with ulterior motives bought privatized securities on a large scale with hard currencies such as gold and food.

Among this group of people are the original bureaucrats, some speculative people in the reforms, and the capable people who have made money under various nepotism. They used bewitching words to make compatriots who could not live their lives betray their own rights to state-owned enterprises,

After receiving countless privatized securities, this group of people looked to the Russian government to cash it out.

After this operation, a large amount of state-owned assets was lost.

In the last group of people, the biggest speculators became Russia’s later famous oligarchs.

Their robbery turned them into super-rich people.

(Former oligarchs)

Five: What happened to shocked Russia.

After experiencing this round of rapid and absurd shock therapy, the Russian economy has suffered greatly!

In three years, the total GDP has been reduced by nearly half, and it has suffered an unprecedented Great Recession.

What makes Russia even more embarrassing is that countless countries such as Vietnam, India, and Iraq that have been aided by the Soviet Union have come here to make trouble!

They borrowed rubles that were once valuable in Russia and returned rubles, but the value is no longer what it used to be.

In particular, India’s piety has disgusted Russia severely.

The foreign debts borrowed were placed by former allies, but the money he borrowed had to be repaid in full.

The Soviet Union borrowed a lot of foreign debts in US dollars in the later period, many of which had to be repaid by Russia.

(Arms Repayment)

For example, this is the case for borrowing from South Korea. Russia, which has no money, can only use arms to repay its debts. Many advanced weapons such as T80 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery, etc., are used as debts and given to the Koreans.

This is sad enough, but the sadder is yet to come.

The US’s robbery made the Russians even angrier.

When Russia was just established, the United States said countless times that it wanted to support Russia’s economic recovery and construction, and promised economic assistance. But what happened in the end? For assistance, I can’t wait for Russia to kneel down!

Nuclear weapons must be reduced before there is assistance. The Russians recognized that they have reduced a lot, but the Americans still refuse to give them.

Routines come and go, but you don’t see the money!

(Brothers can’t make up for the benefits)

In addition to this, Russia’s bleak domestic economy has also caused a large number of Russian scientific and technological talents to leave.

Europe, America, and Asia, in any special period, have absorbed a large number of Russian talents.

An economic reform caused Russia’s economic depression, high inflation, brain drain, weapon outflow, and debt topping, and completely changed Russia’s destiny.

But even so, the United States is still worried about Russia. After Putin, the macho man from heaven came to power and regained his vitality, it continued to compete with Russia. In order to set an example for the Russians, even the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Gorbachev.

At this point, I don’t know what to say!

In the past, Gorbachev led to the disintegration of the superpower. Among them, Yeltsin and Gaidar led to the disintegration of the Russian economy.

The Americans waited from the left to the right. They didn’t wait until the last person appeared. Instead, there was a macho!

Fortunately, that person didn’t show up, or Russia really didn’t know what would become?

End:

The German philosopher Hegel once said:

The only lesson that mankind can learn from history is that mankind never learns from history.

This is very philosophical, but I don’t agree too much, or where did the word come from, learn from history?

The lessons of Britain and the Soviet Union actually have something in common, that is, they have more or less economic problems.

The lessons of the United Kingdom cannot be avoided, because the country’s size and development potential, as well as the changes in the international structure, make Britain’s fall inevitable, but Russia can actually save it. Be less credulous, less obedient, and more thinking. Why is this?

As for the future? I have always believed in one sentence: if others don’t give it reliably, only what you have is reliable!

As for the economy, we are considered to be neat and complete, perhaps outdated, or backward, or not competitive enough for the time being, but time is up to me, it just depends on the emergence of another country with economic problems.