Translated from the Headlines （Toutiao 头条新闻）
Author: Make up（补一刀）
Twenty-four strikes, two-pronged approach, “comprehensive suppression of communism”…
An action plan for the Indian government to carry out a large-scale armed suppression of the Maoist forces of the Communist Party of India has recently aroused heated discussions in India. This also allowed the Maoist guerrillas of the Communist Party of India who were once “in a desperate situation” three years ago to return to people’s vision.
New Delhi’s “suppression of the Communist Party” plan is not only shocking but also sudden.
Just a few months ago, the Modi government declared that the Indian military and police had “fruitful results” in the suppression of the guerrillas and that a large number of guerrillas and Maoist armed forces “surrendered” to the areas controlled by the Maoist armed forces. Violent incidents related to guerrillas have also decreased significantly in recent years.
But as soon as the “suppression of the Communist Party” plan came out, it proved that the actual situation behind it was not the case.
The situation of the Maoists in the Communist Party of India in recent years has been sorted out more and more by the Indian media.
Defeated 2,000 military police with 400 guerrillas, formulated the “A Thousand Miles Expedition” plan to break through to the north of India, and continued to recover and grow during the three-year “counter-offensive”…
One thing prevents the Indian authorities from continuing to “deceive themselves”.
Will the Maoists of the Communist Party of India recover and grow, will it cause more problems for the Indian authorities and even the development of the Indian country? Will New Delhi’s “total suppression of communism” achieve the desired results?
Whenever they see the “Maoist faction of the Communist Party of India”, many people will feel a sense of intimacy inexplicably. But does it have any connection with China?
The rainy season is gradually over, and the fog and shelter in the dense jungle are fading. A long-planned “total suppression of communism” operation in New Delhi, the arrow is on the line.
The new plan is said to be a two-pronged approach, both heart-breaking and real.
Many Indian media recently quoted a person from the Indian Ministry of Internal Affairs as saying that the senior officials of the Indian federal government have just finalized that they will establish 24 “forward operating bases” by the end of this year. The main task is to implement the plan to suppress the Maoist guerrillas of the CPI.
Ten of them are located in Chhattisgarh, the core area of guerrilla activities, seven are in Maharashtra, six are in Jharkhand, and one is in Odisha. In addition to these, some additional military and police camps may be established in Jharkhand and Orissa.
The overall strategic thinking is to go deep into the “enemy camp”, on the one hand, to increase the “mass work”, weaken the influence and support of the Maoist armed forces in the local society, on the other hand, strengthen the monitoring of the local guerrillas, especially senior members, and do a good job. Prepare for war.
Once the rainy season is over and the construction of the forward base is completed, “large-scale operations to encircle and suppress guerrillas will follow,” said an Indian paramilitary officer deployed in Chhattisgarh.
The twenty-fourth road attacked with great momentum. With the cooperation of a group of Indian media, the Modi government’s “suppression of the Communist Party” plan has not yet been implemented, and the atmosphere has been heated up.
But the question also came: the Maoist armed threat of the Communist Party of India suddenly became so great?
Hasn’t the Indian government been saying that it is “not enough” in the past two years?
Just three months ago, on August 15th, India’s Independence Day, Prime Minister Modi was still boasting about the “phased victory” of the government’s suppression of guerrillas.
He listed the “results” at the time, saying that 15 villages “submitted to the government” in an important stronghold of the guerrillas in the central Chhattisgarh state, “submitted to the government”, and at least 403 guerrillas “abandoned the dark and cast light.”
Earlier, India’s Ministry of the Interior tried its best to prove to the Parliament that Maoist armed forces were an insignificant “sickness disease”.
It provides a set of convincing data: in 2009, the number of “violent incidents” related to guerrillas in India reached a historical peak, reaching 2,258. But by 2020, this number has dropped by 70% to only 665.
Not only the government but also the Indian media have been optimistic.
Beginning in May, the Indian media continued to report on the suppression of Maoist forces in Chhattisgarh by the military and police forces. Allegedly, under the joint siege of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), the India-Tibet Border Police (ITBP), the Border Security Force (BSF), and the local military and police directly under the Ministry of the Interior of India, the local guerrillas were struggling to parry and the epidemic The impact is already “destroy soon.”
Now that the situation is very good with “rich results”, why is New Delhi suddenly mobilizing its troops and launching a decisive battle against the Maoist armed forces of the Communist Party of India? It doesn’t make sense.
There is only one explanation, that is, the actual situation is so severe that it can no longer tolerate “contempt” by the Indian government.
The humiliating defeat against the guerrillas on April 3 this year was considered an important event that stimulated the “fighting spirit” of New Delhi.
In the early morning of the same day, the 2,000 Indian military police were divided into five groups after receiving the information. Under the cover of drones and helicopters, they went to sneak attack on a guerrilla base in Chhattisgarh, trying to make the most elite guerrilla first. All the camps are caught in one go.
Embarrassingly, the military and police forces were caught in a three-sided attack by more than 400 guerrillas as soon as they arrived at the scheduled location at 10 o’clock in the morning. According to the details disclosed by the Indian media, the guerrillas suppressed the military and police helicopters with heavy firepower, and at the same time carried out interspersed encirclement, smashing the “criminal force” and fleeing in all directions.
At least 23 military police were killed in the battle, including the commander.
Ironically, the “criminal force” also includes the “Cobra Force”, the main force used by the Indian military and police to deal with Maoist armed forces. This elite team was also exhausted in the battle on the 3rd.
2000 vs. 400, but also a disastrous defeat. This battle was furious to the top of the Indian government.
Modi spoke on social media that day, but could not say anything other than “remember the victims”. Shah, the head of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the Minister of the Interior, claimed that he could not tolerate this status quo, while trying his best to make up for it, saying that “the guerrillas launched the attack out of despair”, “because the security camps of the military and police have been opened to the bandit zone’. center”.
But obviously, none of these can conceal the embarrassment that New Delhi can do nothing.
Hasn’t the Indian government been planning to launch this “comprehensive suppression” plan since then? unknown.
But then, more signs showed that the combat power and resilience of the guerrillas were increasing.
One piece of evidence is that the Maoists of the Communist Party of India tried to implement the “Thousand Miles Expedition” plan.
In mid-July, the military and police in the Indian state of Jharkhand seized a 14-page “internal guerrilla document.”
Documents show that facing the dual blockade of military and police forces and the epidemic, the main armed forces of the Communist Party of India in a base area in southern Chhattisgarh planned to implement a large-scale breakout and move north along with the mountainous and forested areas of Chhattisgarh. , Went to Jharkhand and Bihar to establish new bases.
The entire route will be more than one thousand kilometers in length.
This “Thousand Miles Raid” plan shocked New Delhi.
Worse still, various analyses have shown that the guerrilla plan is “very maneuverable.” Regardless of the topography, the reserve of soldiers, or the current leadership structure of the CPI Maoists, they are all-sufficient to support the guerrillas to complete such a “strategic expedition.”
Some analysts say that if the breakout plan is successful, the guerrillas will “advance, retreat, and defend” in the north.
This time the Indian government’s “comprehensive suppression” plan emphasized the need to send more manpower to the northern state of Jharkhand, which is considered to be in response to the consideration of the “northern” of the guerrillas.
A 400-2000 anti-sneak attack and the “A Thousand Miles Expedition” plan discovered in July have all become signs of the strength of the Maoist armed forces in India.
And three years ago, the guerrillas were once considered “desperate.”
In April 2018, Janapati, then General Secretary of the Indian Maoist faction, was arrested; the number of guerrilla troops dropped to 6,000; the guerrilla area was also reduced from 74 counties in 2015 to 10…
However, according to follow-up reports from the Indian media, in the second half of 2018, the Maoist armed forces withstood the pressure, reorganized the leadership and a group of senior military commanders, carried out a strategic shift, gradually recovered their vitality, and started the “counter-offensive” process in the past three years.
In addition to winning some battles, the fighting methods of Maoist armed forces are also “growing”:
The guerrillas have used drones in some places to monitor the movements of the military and police, and have begun to recruit soldiers through social media and encrypted social platforms.
While the guerrilla forces are recovering, the Indian government’s past “suppression of bandits” has exposed more and more problems of self-deception.
In order to exaggerate the results of the war, the military and police departments have arbitrarily compiled many “surrenders.”
A report by the Indian Wire News on November 8 revealed that most of the “reverted” guerrillas in Chhattisgarh were ordinary people randomly arrested by the local military and police. They were forced to sign a “surrender” agreement and became “submission” personnel.
A lot of superficial articles have been done, and even the judgment on the strength of the guerrillas is getting worse and worse.
The military police in some areas where the guerrillas are active have concluded that the guerrillas are “vulnerable” only through one or two questionnaire surveys, rather than through intelligence investigations or battlefield information.
Relying on this kind of “intelligence”, it is strange that the military and police forces do not defeat the war.
Perhaps it is precise because of these changes in the “enemy and us” that the Indian government has begun to study and judge the situation more seriously and launch a new “comprehensive suppression” plan.
Can the Indian government’s “24-way attack” plan achieve the desired results?
Some people doubt it.
In recent years, the Maoist armed forces of the Communist Party of India have been further broken into parts, entering the fringe areas of cities and rural areas, and harassing the Indian military and police in groups more often. This puts a question mark on whether the new scope of the Indian government’s clean-up and suppression measures can be fully implemented and have a morally lacking effect.
Other scholars believe that even if the combat effectiveness of the guerrillas rises, it will be difficult for the Indian government to cause any problems concerning the overall situation.
As a result, most of the areas affected by the Maoists of the Communist Party of India are not the core areas of India.
The guerrillas are mainly in the poor and backward rural areas of central and eastern India, relying on the deep mountains and old forests or the joints between states to achieve certain development, and from time to time carry out some attacks against government targets.
Secondly, past experience has shown that once New Delhi becomes “serious”, it can often cause serious damage to the guerrillas.
In the process of development and growth, the guerrilla area armed by the Maoists of the Communist Party of India formed a “red corridor” from northeast to southwest. About 10 years ago, the Singh government of the National Congress Party paid great attention to this, positioning it as a “cancer” in the development of the Indian state.
By delegating the power of “suppressing bandits”, encircling and suppressing them, and including them, the Indian government at that time dealt a heavy blow to the guerrillas. Although it has not been cleaned up, the existence of the guerrillas will not have much impact on the Indian government and the development of the country.
And now, the Modi government is also showing its “re-emphasis” on the issue of guerrillas.
When it comes to the Maoists of the Communist Party of India, another question that needs to be answered is how does it relate to China?
Because the name Maoist of the Communist Party of India itself, it is easy for many people in China to feel close.
A South Asian scholar answered straightforwardly: it doesn’t matter.
The development context and factions of the CPI are relatively complicated. Among them, the Communist Party of India (Marxism) is a legal national political party in India. It has been participating in the Indian government and taking the road of the parliamentary system. In 1958, the Communist Party of India (Malaysia) won local power through elections for the first time, and it is now also in power in individual southern states. At the federal level, the Communist Party of India (Malaysia) has also been actively participating in politics, but it has gradually declined in recent years, with only a few seats.
After the Communist Party of India (Maoism) split, it has been taking the road of armed revolution.
Marked by the armed uprising that broke out in the village of Naxalbari in West Bengal in 1967, the political parties and organizations in India that advocate armed resistance to the authorities are collectively referred to as the “Naxalites.” Among them, the Maoists of the Communist Party of India are the most powerful.
In the past few decades, China has not had any connection with the Maoists of the CPI.
The Indian Ministry of the Interior once accused China of providing weapons to the Maoists of the Communist Party of India, because some guerrillas were found using Chinese-made firearms during the encirclement and suppression.
However, Sun Yuxi, the then Chinese ambassador to India, once clearly clarified that even if the Maoist guerrillas in India have some weapons produced in China, it does not mean that they have relations with China. Those weapons may have been obtained by the guerrillas from other countries that have imported Chinese-made weapons or simply from the weapons black market.
Even when Sino-Indian relations are tense, China’s position has not changed. The Indian side did not further hype this issue.
Picture from the Internet