Translated from the Headlines （Toutiao 头条新闻）
Author: Eagle Pigeon Analysis（鹰鸽分析）
The defeat is irreversible. The next step is to withdraw and rebuild the line of defense in a respectable manner. This is a difficult decision that the United States has to make.
We are more often looking at the situation from the perspective of China. The Taiwan Strait is at war, the South China Sea is turbulent, and the young people dare to provoke China. There is a sense that the tree wants to be quiet but the wind is not stopping. In terms of strategic posture, China seems to be in a state of affairs. Very unfavorable location. Is this really the case? Well, let’s look at the situation from the perspective of the Americans from another angle. America’s life seems to be worse than ours.
The Chinese perspective is staring at China’s periphery; the American perspective is staring at the world.
From the United States’ global perspective, the interests involved are by no means limited to China. Eastern Europe and the Middle East are all nodes of interest that the United States can’t give up. Eastern Europe is the bridgehead for the American strategy to advance eastward. The drastic changes in Eastern Europe once dismembered the Soviet Union and can end U.S. hegemony today; the Middle East is a battleground for U.S. sea power and U.S. dollar hegemony. Even if it is an imperial grave, the United States has to go through it.
In recent times, Eastern Europe has been at war. NATO and Russia’s the Black Sea are constantly confronting each other. The EU’s refugee crisis and conflict in Belarus have intensified, and there is also a worsening Ukrainian crisis. For the United States, Eastern Europe has always been a trump card for the United States to suppress the European Union and suppress Russia.
How does the United States use Eastern Europe to suppress the European Union? One of the most important reasons why the European Union is unable to form a joint force is that the development of Eastern and Western Europe is not balanced. The overall development of Eastern European countries lags behind that of Western Europe. Therefore, the European Union has many advantages and disadvantages in Eastern Europe. It is this imbalance that makes it difficult for the EU to form synergy.
The United States clearly sees this point, so it incites Eastern European countries to create troubles in Eastern Europe, to contain Western Europe’s energy, and to interrupt the development of the European Union. For example, Belarus controls the lifeline of EU countries’ natural gas supply. At the same time, it also kidnapped the European Union to a certain extent, such as Lithuania. Provoking China on the Taiwan issue is of a certain kidnapping nature, and EU favoritism and asylum have adversely affected China-EU relations.
Although the United States has turned the clouds and rains in Eastern Europe, and instigated and manipulated the situation can achieve the strategic effect of killing one stone with one stone, but at the same time, the United States has also plunged itself into turmoil in Eastern Europe, and it is difficult to extricate itself. It may not matter in the past, but in the current climate of competition among major powers, especially the strategic game between China and the United States, Eastern Europe is holding the United States in check. The United States is forced to fight on two fronts, fighting on one side and seeking relaxation on the other side. This seems to have become the norm.
In the Middle East, the United States originally had a big layout. With 9.11 as the lead, the United States resolutely opened the global anti-terrorism curtain. The first attack on Afghanistan, the Afghan War brought Afghanistan and Pakistan into the layout and cut off the connection between the Middle East and East Asia and South Asia from the east. Then the soldiers quickly captured Iraq and connected the western part of the Persian Gulf. Then the black hand stretched out. Syria, Russia’s only support in the Middle East, although the United States did not take Syria as expected due to Russia’s intervention, from the overall situation, only Iran is left in the Middle East oil-producing countries, and the rest are all under the control of the United States.
The Middle East is an important oil-producing area in the world. Most of the oil is exported to the United States, Japan, and Western Europe, accounting for more than half of the world’s total exports. It has a huge impact on the world’s energy supply and the development of the world economy. The United States will naturally not give up this advantageous grasp of controlling the world. At the same time, the United States has achieved control of the Middle East, which undoubtedly divides the three continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa into three parts, and controls the land passages between the three continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa, and then leads the trade to sea transportation. Shipping is the United States’ world, isn’t this the strength of the United States?
It’s a pity that the United States has a huge layout, but in the end, it’s not as good as the sky. The United States’ strategic encirclement of Iran is only invisible. Instead, it plunged the United States into the quagmire of the two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq at the same time, overthrowing the Saddam regime, and on the contrary, made the Shiites of Iraq and Iran closer together. The U.S. forces in Afghanistan eventually had to withdraw in a massive defeat. The forces that had withdrawn were unacceptable in Pakistan and Central Asia, and the U.S. seemed to be back to the original point in the end.
As Iran is still there and the Iranian nuclear issue is still there, the United States has to engage in a long-term confrontation and confrontation with Iran in the Persian Gulf. Talking and chatting have become the norm. The Middle East is like a chicken rib. It is a pity to discard it, and it is tasteless. What is even more abhorrent is that it is strategically constraining the United States.
In addition to the two points of Eastern Europe and the Middle East, the United States now most wants to win the Asia-Pacific region. There is Russia in Eastern Europe, Iran in the Middle East, and China in East Asia. Although the United States emphasized the need to transfer 60% of the U.S. military’s military power to the Asia-Pacific region as early as 2012 when it proposed the strategy of returning to the Asia-Pacific region, the frequent incidents of the U.S. military in recent years are largely related to the high-intensity deployment of the U.S. military. Still seem stretched.
After Trump upgraded his return to the Asia-Pacific strategy to an Indo-Pacific strategy, India and the Taiwan Strait have become the two core nodes in the entire US framework. The Indo-Pacific strategy will no longer exist without India. If the Taiwan Strait is lost, the chain of containment built by the United States in the coastal waters of China will be completely shattered. The United States will no longer have a foothold within the first island chain; what is even more abhorrent will also be on the geography. With a series of chain reactions, the China, Japan, and South Korea sectors will truly take shape.
According to modern history, China’s greatest security threat comes from the sea. Therefore, China uses its strength to completely offset the advantages achieved by the United States around China. All military base groups that the U.S. military can support in the Western Pacific are all covered by the PLA’s long-range conventional missiles; The US aircraft carrier battle group is also facing the most severe survival crisis in history. The People’s Liberation Army has basically established a maritime defense depth of 2,000 kilometers beyond China’s coastline.
It is precise because of this improvement based on the strength that the Taiwan Strait has been completely under the control of mainland China, and the initiative for war and peace is in the hands of the People’s Liberation Army. Although the United States is frantically playing the Taiwan card, it is about Taiwan’s final destiny. The United States has long been unable to recover. Today is no longer an era when the United States can stop China from realizing the process of reunifying the motherland by dispatching a few aircraft carrier battle groups. Based on its strength, the United States has to propose to control risks.
In summary, under China’s vision, China has achieved regional advantages and has the confidence to fight and reconcile. The United States is different. Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Indo-Pacific are fighting on the three fronts.
Therefore, no matter how unwilling the United States is, it has to admit this reality and face it squarely. The United States cannot withdraw from Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and the strength of the Indo-Pacific region is difficult to exert strong pressure on China. Therefore, the seemingly crazy attack by the United States on China has no effect, and the United States’ defeat is a foregone conclusion.
In the past few years, the United States was extremely confident. In 2012, it proposed a strategy of returning to the Asia-Pacific. After three years of preparation, the United States launched the first round of large-scale attacks on China in the financial sector in 2015. In 2016, China and the United States launched the post-Cold War world in the South China Sea. The largest maritime standoff in China, the 2018 Sino-US trade war brought this game to a climax. It took the United States 6 years to play the cards in its hands. The United States looked back and found that the United States could no longer defeat China.
There is unpredictable weather, and people have misfortunes and blessings. The new crown epidemic suddenly and quickly swept the world. The United States has fallen in this world war against the epidemic. The internal problems of the United States that were originally hidden underwater have been completely intensified in a short period of time. The United States has problems with its economy and its social conflicts are becoming increasingly acute. Participation within the government continued to unfold, and then to rising inflation, debt ceilings, supply chain crises, and so on.
The United States is currently facing internal and external troubles. Internal problems are intensifying. External third-line operations require both fish and bear’s paws. However, the two are not available at the same time. In the end, there is a high probability that it will only be a waste of water.
It seems that the situation of the United States is not as good as we imagined, and the advantage that the United States has in this century’s game is not as great as we imagined. We return to the small game of the Sino-US West Pacific game. The overall situation of the Taiwan Strait has been determined, and the United States is unable to recover; on the broad ocean west of the Second Island Chain, the overall defeat of the United States is a foregone conclusion.
The situation is stronger than that of people, and the general situation is gone. The best way left is how to retreat in a decent way and reshape the line of defense. The United States is now taking action.
The United States has created a lot of small environments in the context of the strategic climate of competition among major powers. From the Five Eyes alliance to the four-nation mechanism of the United States, Japan, India, Australia, Australia, and the Pacific, all the spearheads are directed at China. But what is very puzzling is that the United States has secretly engaged Britain and Australia with an Orcus outside of the above mechanism without knowing it, and even promised Australia to sell nuclear submarines, which is not afraid to offend France, the European Union. A vital ally.
In addition, what is even more puzzling is that in March of Alaska, the United States, which spoke condescendingly to China from its position of strength, changed its normal state and proactively sought talks with China under the circumstances of China’s “two lists” requirements. Eventually, promote the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States, and make avoiding conflicts the core of the meeting.
This approach is not American, and there must be demons if something goes wrong. Behind this move of the United States, there must be a big move:
More than ten days ago, six U.S. congressmen visited Taiwan on a U.S. Navy C-40A administrative plane. Among them, John Corning, a U.S. senator, is a U.S. arms dealer in addition to his public identity as a U.S. Republican senator. The spokesperson of the United States; combined with the news disclosed by the media on the island a few days ago, the United States intends to sell the stock of second-hand weapons withdrawn from the Middle East to the other side. It can be seen from this that Professor Qiu Yi’s claim that all US Senators visit for money is not unfounded.
When the United States is unable to recover from the Taiwan Strait, the best option is to squeeze the final value of Taiwan, China to the maximum. For American arms dealers, if you have money to make money and clear your inventory, you can kill two birds with one stone. Why not do it?
The U.S. has a big problem now. The U.S. dollar has released a large amount of water. Theoretically, the U.S. dollar index should have gone down. But now the U.S. dollar index has soared abnormally. After the peak of 95, Japan has also released a large amount of water again; now the debt ceiling and inflation are a record high, a supply chain crisis, and many signs indicate that the United States is likely to speed up the process of returning the dollar. The United States has always done this in history. Now there is only one catalyst left.
This is obviously a move for the United States to save itself.
In addition, the United States is now in contact with China, focusing on strengthening Sino-US economic and trade cooperation, which can be confirmed from the “four aspects” recently put forward by the US President’s National Security Adviser Sullivan. In the past two years, the United States called for a complete “decoupling” from China in the world. Now, after a circle, it will mention “re-linking”. This step is more like abandoning the car to protect the handsome. The United States has brought its allies into the ditch. Excessively setting aside allies and talking with China, everything is still centered on the interests of the United States.
This series of signs indicate that the United States is now planning a decent retreat. At the time when China is unable to return to the sky, the United States will put Japan on top of the front, save its strength, and quietly withdraw its strength to the second line. The re-purging of the defense line on the second line, the strategic transformation of the US Navy, and the establishment of Orcus are all-powerful illustrations.
This may be the real intention of the United States.